951 Tamarack St Lot : 20 · Traverse City, MI 49686

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1949 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot Est $316k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

East side opportunity in the Pinegrove neighborhood! This 1950s ranch offers main-floor living with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, set on a desirable corner lot. Refinished hardwood floors (2020) run through the living room and bedrooms, and the home features a full basement providing additional space and storage. New roof already completed. Patio off the home for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for buyers looking to add their own updates, this property offers solid potential in a sought-after location. Just steps from the TART Trail and close to the state park and beach, with convenient access to town while benefiting from East Bay Township taxes.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Patio
• Main-floor living

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR LIVING
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• NEW ROOF
• PATIO
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential, single-story home (1 story); Built in 1949; Below-grade area present (unfinished); Entry lot identified as Lot 20
• Construction: Wood construction; Built in 1949; Full, unfinished basement with block construction and egress/daylight windows, interior access
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Covered porch; Subdivision lot with wooded surroundings

Interior

• Kitchen: 8 x 8 kitchen; Range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom; Bedroom sizes approximately 11'3" x 9', 11' x 9', and 9' (all on the main level); Wood flooring in bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living, dining and bedrooms; Concrete flooring in laundry room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Bay window
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room on the lower level with concrete floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($497/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.1% in Traverse City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#4 in MI, #46 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Traverse City Area Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #94 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 454 students, 27% FRL); East Middle School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 786 students, 38% FRL); Central High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,387 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 883 units permitted in Grand Traverse County in 2024 (501 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Traverse County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $197,696 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,260
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
951 Tamarack St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,004 (0%)	1mo	$252,000	$251	100
951 Tamarack St Lot : 20	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,004 (0%)	1mo	$252,000	$251	100
877 Parsons Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	967 (-4%)	2mo	$305,000	$315	75
928 Avenue E	0.12mi	3/1.0	906 (-10%)	8mo	$350,000	$386	72
966 Avenue D	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,069 (+6%)	17mo	$313,600	$293	66
870 Pine Grove Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	936 (-7%)	16mo	$305,000	$326	60
880 Pine Grove Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	23mo	$320,000	$370	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,775
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,636
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49686

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $117	+0% $41	+5% $-35	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-37	+0% $41	+5% $120	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $97	base $41	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Munson Pl Unit 426-203 Traverse City, MI	2.0	2.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Accepting Backup Offers
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $1,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1950s ranch offers main-floor living with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, set on a desirable corner lot. The home features refinished hardwood floors and a new roof, making it a good candidate for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen countertops — Simple, dated design
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Simple design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · Simple, dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Simple design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Traverse City Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633870
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,645
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #2990
• State rank: #94 of 540 in MI

Livability — Traverse City

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #46

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grand Traverse County · 47,077 people
• City population: 47,077
• Metro: Traverse City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,492
• Household income: $71,609
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Grand Traverse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,241 people
• By 2030: 107,172 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 115,676 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 122,377 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 136,554 · +33.6%
• By 2100: 137,871 · +34.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand Traverse

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.3% · R 50.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+3.0 2016: R+12.5 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.28%
• Current HPI: 352.4866
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Traverse City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $220,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS