2408 Anton Dr · Travis Ranch, TX 75126

$204,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2019 5,576 sqft lot Est $236k · 13% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fabulous single story has great curb appeal, livable floorplan, and no wasted space. The light & bright living room and kitchen makes entertaining a breeze offering an open airy feel while still emitting a sense of warmth & coziness. This kitchen is a chef's delight offering a large center island & comes equipped with stainless appliances, recessed lighting, pantry, and granite countertops! The private primary suite is split from the other bedrooms & features an en-suite bath with a walk-in shower & large walk-in closet! Enjoy this private backyard with a covered patio and plenty of grass space for a trampoline, playscape, and entertaining friends and family! Fabulous community amenities to keep the whole family busy! Lake enthusiasts will love being near Lake Ray Hubbard for fun-filled weekends on the water! A must see! Home has solar panels that need to convey with the home. Seller will give a $5k credit to buyer.

Key facts

• Granite counter tops
• Great sized backyard
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GREAT SIZED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee of 409; HOA covers full use of facilities; HOA managed by Essex Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; Built in 2019
• Construction: Year built: 2019
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.128 acre); Subdivision: Travis Ranch Ph 2g

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Granite counters; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Travis Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#983 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 763 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,433 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1029 Bedias Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+6%)	6mo	$249,900	$175	77
2031 Jack County Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$181	75
1202 Trevino Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-5%)	2mo	$243,000	$189	73
5649 Hepburn St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	10mo	$235,000	$181	69
2423 Lemco Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+10%)	1mo	$240,000	$161	63
2804 Lenham Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$243,000	$169	62
1050 Rio Bravo Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+12%)	0mo	$235,000	$155	60
4110 Wintergreen Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-8%)	2mo	$225,000	$180	57
4138 Wintergreen Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	2mo	$199,900	$166	51
5402 Majestro Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	1mo	$225,000	$187	48
2124 Hobby Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+13%)	3mo	$220,000	$144	42
4423 Culrin Way	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+11%)	4mo	$229,900	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-42,124
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-56,171
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,129/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $188,433

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-35	+0% $-93	+5% $-151	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-174	+0% $-93	+5% $-13	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-41	base $-93	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	8d	1	0.30mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	0.30mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	0.32mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	9d	1	0.33mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	0.36mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	26d	1	0.36mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,780	$1.44	0d	1	0.36mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	0.44mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	0.47mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	9d	1	0.53mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	45d	1	0.57mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	0.61mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	26d	1	0.63mi
4119 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,500	$1.48	20d	1	0.67mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	8d	1	0.68mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	18d	1	0.68mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	0d	1	0.87mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	45d	1	0.87mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	6d	1	0.88mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	23d	1	0.88mi
6011 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	5d	1	0.92mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	14d	1	0.95mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	17d	1	0.95mi
6021 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	26d	1	0.96mi
5628 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.96mi
5811 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,999	$1.39	45d	1	0.99mi
6038 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	45d	1	1.01mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	23d	1	1.03mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,995	$1.31	9d	1	1.03mi
5603 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	1.04mi
5733 Barbaro Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,790	$1.77	0d	1	1.07mi
6084 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,700	$1.37	4d	1	1.08mi
6077 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	26d	1	1.10mi
1031 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	6d	1	1.10mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	26d	1	1.12mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	21d	1	1.12mi
2014 Zavala Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,100	$1.30	6d	1	1.13mi
6101 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	1.15mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	26d	1	1.21mi
2143 Erika Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	18d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $204,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $204,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-05-31
    listed $214,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,129 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,129 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$6,129
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable loss: −$4,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-53/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Travis Ranch

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #983
• US rank: #17440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Travis Ranch, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $214,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-09-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-09-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $272,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-28 Price Changed $272,500 NTREIS
• 2023-07-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-07-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-07-03 Listed $275,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+26.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,129 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.