14 Knights Dr · Heathsville, VA 22473

$299,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,420 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2002 2.94 ac lot $124/sqft · 33% below area Est $445k · 33% under $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 2,420 square feet of living space, perfectly situated on 2.94 private acres in the Knights Landing water access community. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the space, privacy, and peaceful setting this property offers. Inside, you’ll find new LVP flooring, with additional flooring that conveys. A new metal roof adds lasting value, while the layout offers plenty of room to spread out, gather, and truly feel at home. Step outside to the rear screened porch, the perfect spot for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The large backyard is ideal for family activities, hosting friends, or enjoying the outdoors. Located in Knights Landing, a quiet water access community with access to the Wicomico River, you’ll have the opportunity to enjoy boating and fishing. Just minutes from the heart of Heathsville, while still being an easy drive to surrounding towns Burgess, Kilmarnock and Irvington for shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Private acres
• New metal roof
• Large backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW METAL ROOF
• REAR SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• WATER ACCESS COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northumberland Elementary (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C+, #637 of 1,108 statewide, top 58%, 541 students, 91% FRL); Northumberland Middle (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 276 students, 90% FRL); Northumberland High (math 42% / reading 77%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 383 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 50% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,804
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -32.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Teal Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,172 (-10%)	17mo	$390,000	$180	49
14 Bufflehead Ct	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,586 (+7%)	22mo	$356,000	$138	35
31 Pintail Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,144 (-11%)	22mo	$380,000	$177	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,649
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $9,083
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22473

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,322

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $463	+0% $378	+5% $293	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $267	+0% $378	+5% $488	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $454	base $378	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
656 High Point Trl Heathsville, VA	3.0	2.0	2640	$2,800	$1.06	45d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1025 chars)

    Welcome Home to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 2,420 square feet of living space, perfectly situated on 2.94 private acres in the Knights Landing water access community. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the space, privacy, and peaceful setting this property offers. Inside, you’ll find new LVP flooring, with additional flooring that conveys. A new metal roof adds lasting value, while the layout offers plenty of room to spread out, gather, and truly feel at home. Step outside to the rear screened porch, the perfect spot for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The large backyard is ideal for family activities, hosting friends, or enjoying the outdoors. Located in Knights Landing, a quiet water access community with access to the Wicomico River, you’ll have the opportunity to enjoy boating and fishing. Just minutes from the heart of Heathsville, while still being an easy drive to surrounding towns Burgess, Kilmarnock and Irvington for shopping and dining.

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $299,900 Active 1025-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1025 chars)

    Welcome Home to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 2,420 square feet of living space, perfectly situated on 2.94 private acres in the Knights Landing water access community. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the space, privacy, and peaceful setting this property offers. Inside, you’ll find new LVP flooring, with additional flooring that conveys. A new metal roof adds lasting value, while the layout offers plenty of room to spread out, gather, and truly feel at home. Step outside to the rear screened porch, the perfect spot for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The large backyard is ideal for family activities, hosting friends, or enjoying the outdoors. Located in Knights Landing, a quiet water access community with access to the Wicomico River, you’ll have the opportunity to enjoy boating and fishing. Just minutes from the heart of Heathsville, while still being an easy drive to surrounding towns Burgess, Kilmarnock and Irvington for shopping and dining.

20. 2026-03-20
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1025 chars)

    Welcome Home to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 2,420 square feet of living space, perfectly situated on 2.94 private acres in the Knights Landing water access community. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the space, privacy, and peaceful setting this property offers. Inside, you’ll find new LVP flooring, with additional flooring that conveys. A new metal roof adds lasting value, while the layout offers plenty of room to spread out, gather, and truly feel at home. Step outside to the rear screened porch, the perfect spot for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The large backyard is ideal for family activities, hosting friends, or enjoying the outdoors. Located in Knights Landing, a quiet water access community with access to the Wicomico River, you’ll have the opportunity to enjoy boating and fishing. Just minutes from the heart of Heathsville, while still being an easy drive to surrounding towns Burgess, Kilmarnock and Irvington for shopping and dining.

21. 2026-03-18
    listed $299,900 Active
22. 2025-01-08
    soldstatus $240,000
23. 2025-01-03
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed
24. 2024-12-31
    listed Active Under Contract
25. 2024-12-30
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed
26. 2024-12-16
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2024-11-12
    price $240,000
28. 2024-10-16
    price $250,000
29. 2024-10-04
    price $255,000
30. 2024-09-18
    price $260,000
31. 2024-09-09
    price $270,000
32. 2024-08-27
    price $285,000
33. 2024-08-14
    listed $300,000 Active
34. 2007-11-21
    historical
35. 2007-05-31
    listed $284,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$975/yr (+$81/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $4,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Heathsville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #22811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,646

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.89%
• Current HPI: 169.0605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $299,900 NNAR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $299,900 NNAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-03 Sold (MLS) $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-31 Listed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-21 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-05-31 Listed $284,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,484 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.