52 Berwick Cir · Lake Lorraine, FL 32579

$255,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1970 7,840 sqft lot $146/sqft · 20% below area Est $320k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REO - Opportunity in the heart of Shalimar! This 4BR/2.5BA home sits on a . 18-acre lot on Berwick Circle and offers great potential for the right buyer. Property features a 25-ft in-ground pool (not currently operable), mature landscaping, and a spacious backyard. Sliding glass doors from the primary bedroom lead directly to the pool area, creating a great indoor-outdoor layout once restored. Home includes a one-car attached garage, generous driveway parking, and a functional floor plan with multiple large bedrooms. Conveniently located just minutes from Eglin AFB, Meigs Park, schools, shopping, and dining. Property is being sold as-is, but offers a strong opportunity to renovate and add value.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Mature landscaping
• In ground pool

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LAYOUT
• ONE CAR ATTACHED GARAGE
• GENEROUS DRIVEWAY PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Lorraine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#488 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,763 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,800
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -20.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 10th St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,833 (+5%)	0mo	$330,000	$180	73
79 11Th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-2%)	5mo	$410,000	$240	71
119 12Th Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (+2%)	5mo	$320,000	$180	66
125 12th Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$180	66
129 12Th Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-3%)	7mo	$310,000	$183	63
82 Lake Lorraine Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (+2%)	6mo	$445,000	$251	60
10 Eglin Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+8%)	6mo	$375,000	$199	60
9 Oak Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,651 (-5%)	7mo	$305,000	$185	59
109 3rd Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	3mo	$355,900	$222	59
11 9Th St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,679 (-4%)	9mo	$325,000	$194	57
910 Elizabeth Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,738 (-0%)	7mo	$340,000	$196	53
78 6th St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-14%)	0mo	$340,000	$228	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,038
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,774
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32579

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,208/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $216	+0% $144	+5% $72	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $51	+0% $144	+5% $237	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $209	base $144	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 8th Ave Shalimar, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,750	$1.88	45d	1	0.16mi
38 11th St #103 Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.18mi
133 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1248	$2,000	$1.60	15d	1	0.27mi
116 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	0.34mi
68 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	46d	1	0.41mi
64 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	45d	1	0.43mi
89 Spinnaker Ln Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,395	$1.74	15d	1	0.48mi
6 Pinehurst Dr Shalimar, FL	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,795	$1.32	45d	1	0.50mi
10 2nd St Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,350	$1.43	15d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   REO - Opportunity in the heart of Shalimar! This 4BR/2.5BA home sits on a . 18-acre lot on Berwick Circle and offers great potential for the right buyer. Property features a 25-ft in-ground pool (not currently operable), mature landscaping, and a spacious backyard. Sliding glass doors from the primary bedroom lead directly to the pool area, creating a great indoor-outdoor layout once restored. Home includes a one-car attached garage, generous driveway parking, and a functional floor plan with multiple large bedrooms. Conveniently located just minutes from Eglin AFB, Meigs Park, schools, shopping, and dining. Property is being sold as-is, but offers a strong opportunity to renovate and add value.

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $255,000 Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   REO - Opportunity in the heart of Shalimar! This 4BR/2.5BA home sits on a . 18-acre lot on Berwick Circle and offers great potential for the right buyer. Property features a 25-ft in-ground pool (not currently operable), mature landscaping, and a spacious backyard. Sliding glass doors from the primary bedroom lead directly to the pool area, creating a great indoor-outdoor layout once restored. Home includes a one-car attached garage, generous driveway parking, and a functional floor plan with multiple large bedrooms. Conveniently located just minutes from Eglin AFB, Meigs Park, schools, shopping, and dining. Property is being sold as-is, but offers a strong opportunity to renovate and add value.

3. 2025-10-06
   listed $422,000 Active
4. 2023-03-17
   soldstatus $320,000 Sold
5. 2023-03-16
   soldstatus $320,000
6. 2023-02-07
   status Pending
7. 2022-12-01
   price $315,000
8. 2022-11-12
   price $325,000
9. 2022-10-25
   listed $339,000 Active
10. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus $276,000
11. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $276,000 Sold
12. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $276,000
13. 2021-04-12
    status Pending
14. 2021-04-07
    status Active
15. 2021-03-15
    status Pending
16. 2021-03-12
    listed $295,000 Active
17. 2021-03-12
    listed $295,000
18. 2004-11-02
    soldstatus $165,000
19. 2004-09-03
    listed $165,000
20. 1980-04-01
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 1978-07-01
    soldstatus $36,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,208 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,208 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,208
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Lorraine

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #8959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Lorraine, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 10,775
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,506
• Household income: $104,510
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 271.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.93%
• Current HPI: 281.2637
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+592.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $255,000 ECAR
• 2025-10-06 Listed $422,000 ECAR
• 2023-03-17 Sold (MLS) $320,000 NAMLS
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-07 Pending — NAMLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $315,000 NAMLS
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $325,000 NAMLS
• 2022-10-25 Listed $339,000 NAMLS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $276,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $276,000 NAMLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $276,000 ECAR
• 2021-04-12 Pending — ECAR
• 2021-04-07 Relisted — ECAR
• 2021-03-15 Pending — ECAR
• 2021-03-12 Listed $295,000 ECAR
• 2021-03-12 Listed $295,000 NAMLS
• 2004-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-03 Listed $165,000 ECAR
• 1980-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,208 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.