177 S Marshall St · Pontiac, MI
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 96°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.7/10.0
- ARV discount +4.9/15.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$97,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great starter or investment home. Move in ready
Key facts
- 6,098 sq ft lot
- Garage
- Built 1943
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
- Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.7% in Pontiac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
- Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $18k; list at $97k implies a 454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.37% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.42%
- Cash-on-cash
- 18.31%
- DSCR
- 1.81
- GRM
- 6.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $91,661
- List price
- $97,000
- Delta
- 5.83%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 S Marshall St | 0.27mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,491 (+1%) | 11mo | $81,000 | $54 | 72 |
| 228 S Marshall St | 0.10mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,606 (+9%) | 16mo | $135,500 | $84 | 62 |
| 291 Michigan Ave | 0.55mi | 2/1.5 | 1,400 (-5%) | 5mo | $108,000 | $77 | 60 |
| 23 Martin Luther King JR Blvd N | 0.39mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,412 (-4%) | 13mo | $205,000 | $145 | 57 |
| 116 Raymond St | 0.63mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,511 (+2%) | 9mo | $225,000 | $149 | 52 |
| 103 N Roselawn St | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,487 (+1%) | 10mo | $105,000 | $71 | 49 |
| 465 S Marshall St | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,368 (-7%) | 6mo | $133,000 | $97 | 48 |
| 53 N Roselawn St | 0.62mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,400 (-5%) | 8mo | $180,000 | $129 | 45 |
| 55 N Roselawn Street St | 0.63mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,400 (-5%) | 8mo | $180,000 | $129 | 45 |
| 161 Perkins St | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,471 (-0%) | 12mo | $180,000 | $122 | 44 |
| 135 Osmun St | 0.72mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,368 (-7%) | 10mo | $210,000 | $154 | 35 |
| 251 E Judson St | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,299 (-12%) | 17mo | $112,000 | $86 | 29 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 10.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.39×
- Total profit
- $10,671
- Equity at exit
- $14,463
- IRR
- 19.1%
- Equity multiple
- 2.59×
- Total profit
- $43,266
- Equity at exit
- $8,387
Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48342
- Home prices YoY
- -33.8%
- Active inventory
- 87
- Price-to-rent
- 6.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,327 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$509
- Tax from tax record
- −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
- Insurance
- −$40
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$279
- Net cashflow
- $414
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $24,250
- Closing costs
- $2,910
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 21 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128 S Edith St Pontiac, MI | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1155 | $1,384 | $1.20 | 17d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 90 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd S Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,000 | $1.11 | 43d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 38 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1174 | $1,425 | $1.21 | 43d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 68 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $1,395 | $1.47 | 17d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 489 Central Ave Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1140 | $1,195 | $1.05 | 4d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 442 Central Ave Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,250 | $0.83 | 16d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 442 Central Ave Unit 1 Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,500 | $1.00 | 4d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 4000 Winston Dr Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1032 | $515 | $0.50 | 2d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1114 | $1,150 | $1.03 | 24d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1118 | $1,150 | $1.03 | 43d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 35 N Saginaw St Pontiac, MI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,350 | $1.35 | 43d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 35 N Saginaw St Unit 2 Pontiac, MI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,350 | $1.35 | 43d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 49 Oakhill St Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,575 | $1.31 | 24d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 20 Frank St Pontiac, MI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 995 | $800 | $0.80 | 17d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 249 W Wilson Ave Unit 1 Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,540 | $1.71 | 43d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 188 Vernon Dr Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,500 | $1.36 | 24d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1173 Featherstone Rd Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.5 | 970 | $1,495 | $1.54 | 24d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 124 Alice Ave Bloomfield Township, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1440 | $2,000 | $1.39 | 4d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 5 Carter St Pontiac, MI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $1,034 | $1.18 | 4d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 471 Montana Ave Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1017 | $1,599 | $1.57 | 43d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 672 Linda Vista Dr Pontiac, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,500 | $1.67 | 3d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Listing history 26 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $97,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $97,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $97,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $97,000 Active 115 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $97,000 Active 113 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $97,000 Active 112 DOM
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2026-06-10price $97,000 Active 109 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $99,900 Active 108 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
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2026-06-04days on market $99,900 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $99,900 Active 102 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-02-20$99,900 Active 47-char remark
Show marketing remark (47 chars)
Great starter or investment home. Move in ready
-
2026-02-20$99,900 Active 47-char remark
Show marketing remark (47 chars)
Great starter or investment home. Move in ready
-
2019-07-18soldstatus $17,500 Closed
-
2019-07-18soldstatus $17,500
-
2019-06-10status Pending
-
2019-06-04price $20,000
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2019-05-28$25,000 Active
-
2019-05-28$20,000
-
2000-01-06soldstatus $27,500
-
1999-01-14soldstatus $18,000
-
1990-01-30soldstatus $16,605
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,016 · $85/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,255 · $105/mo
- Expected delta
- +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 23.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,921
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,434
- − Property taxes
- −$1,016
- − Insurance
- −$485
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,274
- − Management
- −$1,274
- − Depreciation
- −$2,822
- Taxable income
- $3,617
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$868
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,104/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pontiac City School District
- NCES district ID
- 2628740
- Math proficiency
- 8% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 17% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $33,888
- Composite
- 10.12/100
- National rank
- #9802
- State rank
- #514 of 540 in MI
Livability — Pontiac
- Score
- 64/100
- State rank
- #499
- US rank
- #14703
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Pontiac, MI
- City population
- 44,593
- Population (ZIP)
- 17,227
Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,335,747 people
- By 2030
- 1,375,100 · +2.9%
- By 2040
- 1,435,385 · +7.5%
- By 2050
- 1,469,250 · +10.0%
- By 2075
- 1,531,946 · +14.7%
- By 2100
- 1,450,485 · +8.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Oakland
- 2024 margin
- D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -109.18%
- Current HPI
- 214.3258
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
||
| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
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| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
|
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| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
||
| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
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Price history
+501.6% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-20 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
- 2026-02-20 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2019-07-18 Sold (MLS) $17,500 REALCOMP
- 2019-07-18 Sold (MLS) $17,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2019-06-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2019-06-04 Price Changed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2019-05-28 Listed $20,000 REALCOMP
- 2019-05-28 Listed $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2000-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
- 1999-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
- 1990-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $16,605 Public Records
Property tax history
+6.4%/yrLatest (2025): $1,016 · -47.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…