890 Willow Grande Cir · Flowood, MS 39047

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,462 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2012 6,969 sqft lot $184/sqft · 10% below area Est $304k · 12% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 890 Willow Grande Cir in Castlewoods of Brandon. Home has great curb appeal and is a 3/2 with 1489 sf. Granite countertops, updated appliances, granite on master bath countertops. Split plan. Covered back porch and fully fenced. Neighborhood has sidewalks and a playground and offers the opportunity to join Castlewoods Country Club with golf, tennis, and swimming.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Fully fenced
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• MASTER BATH COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,935 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,361
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -11.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
890 Willow Grande Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+2%)	0mo	$269,000	$181	97
880 Willow Grande Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+7%)	2mo	$278,000	$177	83
961 Willow Grande Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+15%)	5mo	$284,900	$170	68
109 Willow Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	12mo	$285,000	$173	67
529 Willow Valley Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+6%)	4mo	$273,900	$177	66
971 Willow Grande Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+14%)	18mo	$298,000	$179	58
862 Willow Grande Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+12%)	17mo	$239,900	$147	57
905 Willow Grande Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	19mo	$293,900	$175	55
502 Willow Court Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+13%)	2mo	$279,000	$169	52
513 Willow Valley Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+13%)	10mo	$289,900	$175	46
400 Castlewoods Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	14mo	$272,000	$165	34
604 Ridgeview Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+10%)	19mo	$285,000	$177	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-30,236
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,003
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,645/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,138

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Willow Grande Cir Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,400	$1.32	13d	1	0.13mi
1000 Vineyard Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$1,900	$1.67	23d	9	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome home to 890 Willow Grande Cir in Castlewoods of Brandon. Home has great curb appeal and is a 3/2 with 1489 sf. Granite countertops, updated appliances, granite on master bath countertops. Split plan. Covered back porch and fully fenced. Neighborhood has sidewalks and a playground and offers the opportunity to join Castlewoods Country Club with golf, tennis, and swimming.

2. 2026-02-17
   listed $269,000 Active 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome home to 890 Willow Grande Cir in Castlewoods of Brandon. Home has great curb appeal and is a 3/2 with 1489 sf. Granite countertops, updated appliances, granite on master bath countertops. Split plan. Covered back porch and fully fenced. Neighborhood has sidewalks and a playground and offers the opportunity to join Castlewoods Country Club with golf, tennis, and swimming.

3. 2019-10-10
   soldstatus 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   One owner home that has been well maintained. Step inside a spacious Open Familyroom leading to beautiful Kitchen and Dining area. Granite counters with tumblestone backsplash, beautiful cabinetry and stainless appliances adorn the kitchen. This SPLIT plan offers a Master suite w/trey ceilings & ceiling fan. Bath offers double vanities, jetted tub, separate shower and large walk-in closet. The backyard offers covered patio with beaded board ceiling and privacy wood fence. Come and view this lovely home, and you would want to call it HOME!!

4. 2019-07-25
   listed $196,900 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   One owner home that has been well maintained. Step inside a spacious Open Familyroom leading to beautiful Kitchen and Dining area. Granite counters with tumblestone backsplash, beautiful cabinetry and stainless appliances adorn the kitchen. This SPLIT plan offers a Master suite w/trey ceilings & ceiling fan. Bath offers double vanities, jetted tub, separate shower and large walk-in closet. The backyard offers covered patio with beaded board ceiling and privacy wood fence. Come and view this lovely home, and you would want to call it HOME!!

5. 2012-10-24
   soldstatus
6. 2012-08-01
   listed $178,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,125 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,645
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$1,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-17 Listed $269,000 MLSU
• 2019-10-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-07-25 Listed $196,900 MLSU
• 2012-10-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2012-08-01 Listed $178,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,645 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.