1127 Bulwark Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$279,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,156 sqft lot $152/sqft · 10% below area Est $315k · 11% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1127 Bulwark Drive! Built in 2021, this well-maintained 1,872 square foot home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Spacious living areas provide flexibility for relaxing or entertaining, while the practical kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace. The split-bedroom design allows for added privacy, with generously sized rooms throughout the home. Situated in an established neighborhood, the property offers convenient access to local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making commuting and daily errands a breeze. The backyard provides space for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future customization. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, growing household, or investor, 1127 Bulwark Drive presents a great opportunity to own in the Crosby area. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Future customization
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• FUTURE CUSTOMIZATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (37.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,566 (37.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.08%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,229
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -11.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16110 Dockside St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,821 (-1%)	2mo	$270,000	$148	85
913 Breech Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$138	80
615 N Starboard St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,786 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$154	72
1004 Bulwark Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-13%)	3mo	$223,000	$139	66
16215 Spinnaker Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-15%)	2mo	$235,000	$150	65
1358 Tee Time Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-12%)	1mo	$259,900	$160	61
1346 Tee Time Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+12%)	1mo	$289,500	$141	61
1207 Vilamoura Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-10%)	1mo	$203,700	$122	57
16411 Seven Waves Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+6%)	0mo	$237,000	$122	55
16611 N Quadrant Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,081 (+13%)	1mo	$240,000	$115	50
16610 Convoy Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-14%)	0mo	$175,000	$110	48
1602 Chart Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,100 (+14%)	3mo	$374,999	$179	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-85,842
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-135,070
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $246,500 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$641 /mo · $7,695/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,893

Max offer price $174,566

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-433	-5% $-512	+0% $-591	+5% $-670	+10% $-749
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-676	+0% $-591	+5% $-506	+10% $-422
Rate	-1.0pp $-451	-0.5pp $-520	base $-591	+0.5pp $-663	+1.0pp $-737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	93d	1	0.26mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	52d	1	0.27mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	51d	1	0.28mi
16214 Port O Call St Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,399	$0.94	0d	1	0.50mi
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	93d	1	0.55mi
1202 Vilamoura Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,300	$1.00	12d	1	0.58mi
15806 Afore Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2372	$1,951	$0.82	64d	1	0.61mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,625	$1.19	41d	1	0.71mi
15722 E Astern Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$1,896	$0.95	62d	1	0.74mi
16823 S Lighthouse Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	37d	1	0.84mi
330 Harbor Mist Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$2,030	$0.91	30d	1	0.86mi
16835 S Lighthouse Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,795	$1.44	7d	1	0.87mi
17110 Yeoman Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	2001	$2,036	$1.02	28d	1	0.92mi
16106 Broadwater Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$2,276	$1.19	20d	1	0.99mi
6103 Coleus St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,719	$1.01	30d	1	1.08mi
6006 Lovage Ave Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2261	$1,965	$0.87	25d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $279,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $279,000 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,000 Active 197 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,000 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $279,000 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,000 Active 193 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,000 Active 192 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,000 Active 191 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,000 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,000 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 187 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,000 Active 186 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,000 Active 185 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 184 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 183 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 182 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 181 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 180 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,000 Active 179 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,000 Active 178 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,000 Active 177 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,000 Active 174 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,000 Active 172 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,000 Active 171 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,000 Active 168 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,000 Active 167 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,000 Active 166 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,000 Active 165 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,000 Active 163 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,000 Active 159 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,000 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 154 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 153 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 152 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    price $279,000 Active 151 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,695 · $641/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,695 · $641/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$7,695
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$11,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,879
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained 2021 single-family home in Crosby, TX, offers a good condition with no immediate repairs needed. It's ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and enhances property value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction and reduces utility costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $289,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+85.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,695 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.