10641 Ironwood Tree Way · Pasadena Hills, FL 33576

$276,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,684 sqft · Land · 129 Days on market

Built 2026 3,315 sqft lot $214/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Set within the dynamic Mirada community, Mirada Townhomes offers a lifestyle centered around the iconic Mirada Lagoon. This thoughtfully planned neighborhood combines resort-style amenities with everyday convenience, featuring 15-acre lagoon access, a swim-up bar, and inviting outdoor spaces designed for both activity and relaxation. This spacious two-story end-unit townhome pairs modern design with functional living, complete with a 2-car garage and a versatile loft. The open-concept main level is ideal for entertaining, anchored by a sleek kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a walk-in pantry, and a refrigerator already in place for move-in-ready convenienc

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Swim up bar
• Outdoor spaces

Tags

• 15 ACRE LAGOON ACCESS
• SWIM UP BAR
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SLEEK KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $2,572; Total monthly association fees $214.33; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: CO Maronda Homes; Monthly HOA fee $211 (includes cable TV, internet, maintenance of structure and grounds, and other items); Association approval required; Community pool; Community irrigation (reclaimed water); Community sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; New construction (projected completion August 15, 2026); East-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Maronda Homes (Model: St. Sebastian C); Builder license CRC 56762.00; Pre-construction condition
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Sidewalk; Landscaped lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Insulated windows; Loft (additional room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-408/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 366 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,711 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,983
• Equity at exit: $49,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,976
• Equity at exit: $38,747

Cash invested: $77,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $270,889

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $44	+0% $-34	+5% $-112	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-124	+0% $-34	+5% $56	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $36	base $-34	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,225
• Closing costs: $8,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	26d	1	0.01mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	16d	1	0.07mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	19d	1	0.08mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	26d	1	0.12mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	26d	1	0.12mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	26d	1	0.16mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	3d	1	0.16mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	26d	1	0.17mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.18mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.19mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.21mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	6d	1	0.24mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	21d	1	0.25mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	26d	1	0.25mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	19d	1	0.29mi
10356 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,890	$1.13	0d	1	0.30mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.33mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	0.34mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	16d	1	0.37mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	26d	1	0.39mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	26d	1	0.42mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	26d	1	0.46mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	26d	1	0.47mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	19d	1	0.48mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	14d	1	0.50mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	0.51mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	1d	1	0.51mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.52mi
10110 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	26d	1	0.52mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	6d	1	0.53mi
10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1747	$2,200	$1.26	16d	1	0.58mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	5d	1	0.60mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	22d	1	0.60mi
31493 Cannon Rush Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	4d	1	0.63mi
31856 Cardinal Yard Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	26d	1	0.66mi
10888 Quail Grove Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	26d	1	0.73mi
10019 Curley Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	26d	1	0.74mi
31921 Conchshell Sail St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1793	$2,599	$1.45	1d	6	0.76mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	21d	1	0.78mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	23d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $214 · $2,568/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   price $276,900
3. 2026-01-06
   price $284,900
4. 2026-01-05
   listed $294,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,586/yr (+$132/mo · 222.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,511
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$8,055
• Taxable loss: −$5,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $276,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+114.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.