7526 Johnny Crow Rd · Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37098

$355,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1999 2.43 ac lot $303/sqft · 45% above area Est $401k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Modern home with over 2 acres of fenced in land! Home features ample Concrete parking, Barn, Huge Bedrooms, Walk-in closets throughout, Granite Countertops, Tile in wet areas, Hardwood Flooring throughout! Enjoy country living close to the city! Seller still has a few minor repairs to make, like new trim in guest bathroom; Paint/drywall, and few updates in kitchen to make as well!

Key facts

• 2.43 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $355k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,154 (47.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,652
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7440 Johnny Crow Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+6%)	16mo	$284,900	$228	66
9012 Old Highway 46	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	12mo	$280,000	$278	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $153,875
• Equity at exit: $319,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $483,655
• Equity at exit: $689,687

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37098

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,123/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,662

Max offer price $246,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-416	-5% $-516	+0% $-617	+5% $-717	+10% $-818
Rent	-10% $-765	-5% $-691	+0% $-617	+5% $-542	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-438	-0.5pp $-526	base $-617	+0.5pp $-709	+1.0pp $-802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $355,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $355,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $355,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $355,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $355,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $355,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    listed $375,000 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Beautiful Modern home with over 2 acres of fenced in land! Home features ample Concrete parking, Barn, Huge Bedrooms, Walk-in closets throughout, Granite Countertops, Tile in wet areas, Hardwood Flooring throughout! Enjoy country living close to the city! Seller still has a few minor repairs to make, like new trim in guest bathroom; Paint/drywall, and few updates in kitchen to make as well!

15. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus $198,650 Closed 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    great home on over 2 acres of fenced land w a barn. Home needs finishing so only conventional or cash buyer. Home being sold "as is". New HVAC in 3rd bedroom conversion '18

16. 2020-08-16
    historical Active Under Contract 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    great home on over 2 acres of fenced land w a barn. Home needs finishing so only conventional or cash buyer. Home being sold "as is". New HVAC in 3rd bedroom conversion '18

17. 2020-07-28
    status Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    great home on over 2 acres of fenced land w a barn. Home needs finishing so only conventional or cash buyer. Home being sold "as is". New HVAC in 3rd bedroom conversion '18

18. 2020-06-23
    historical Active Under Contract 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    great home on over 2 acres of fenced land w a barn. Home needs finishing so only conventional or cash buyer. Home being sold "as is". New HVAC in 3rd bedroom conversion '18

19. 2020-06-17
    listed $199,900 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    great home on over 2 acres of fenced land w a barn. Home needs finishing so only conventional or cash buyer. Home being sold "as is". New HVAC in 3rd bedroom conversion '18

20. 2013-06-01
    historical
21. 2013-06-01
    historical
22. 2012-10-05
    listed $112,000
23. 2012-10-05
    listed $112,000
24. 2012-01-01
    historical
25. 2012-01-01
    historical
26. 2011-06-09
    listed $117,000
27. 2011-06-09
    listed $117,000
28. 2006-07-29
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,123 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,398/yr (+$116/mo · 124.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$1,123
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$14,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bon Aqua Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bon Aqua Junction, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,933

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 1% Danish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.09%
• Current HPI: 364.5408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $375,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-09 Sold (MLS) $198,650 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-16 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-28 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-17 Listed $199,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-05 Listed $112,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-05 Listed $112,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-09 Listed $117,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-09 Listed $117,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,123 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.