9823 Whitecap Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1986 8,000 sqft lot $335/sqft · at area comps Est $325k · 8% under $117/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Price dropped! Here's your chance to have water views of Puget Sound and the Olympic Mountains in a move in ready home! What are you waiting for?! Unwind and come home to the Carlyon Beach community and relax in your 3 BR, 1 BA to enjoy stunning sunsets from the dining and living rooms. Home has new bathroom sinks, new carpet professionally installed in the primary bedroom, tie-downs are 2 years old, roof is 2-3 years old, gutters are 1 year old. . Store your boat, cars, and more in the HUGE 32x36 SHOP (or rent out boat space for additional income). Shop has 3 bays, a woodstove, electricity, and W/ D hookups. Come home to a short walk to Puget Sound and bring your kayaks! Side yard include

Key facts

• Huge 32x36 shop
• New carpet
• Woodstove

Tags

• CARLYON BEACH COMMUNITY
• NEW BATHROOM SINKS
• NEW CARPET
• HUGE 32X36 SHOP
• 3 BAYS
• WOODSTOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Carlyon Beach HOA with monthly fee of $117; HOA fee includes water, common area maintenance and road maintenance; Community features: boat launch, CCRs, clubhouse, park, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 3 vehicles; Driveway; Detached garage; RV parking
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Carlyon Beach community well); Septic system (pumped by HOA); Puget Sound Energy power; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home on land; One story; Has a view
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction materials; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufactured house
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Patio; Garden space; Fruit trees; Community waterfront / private beach access; RV parking; Shop; Paved site

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level (includes primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Bamboo or cork; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Water heater located in bathroom closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,419 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,669
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -1.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9607 Whitecap Dr NW	0.18mi	3/1.0	945 (+6%)	16mo	$340,000	$360	69
2529 Westwind Dr NW	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+9%)	8mo	$318,150	$327	61
9708 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	22mo	$335,000	$349	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $157,543
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $469,504
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $282,851

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-12	+0% $-97	+5% $-181	+10% $-266
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-190	+0% $-97	+5% $-3	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-20	base $-97	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9621 Steamboat Island Rd NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,950	$2.86	45d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $303,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $303,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $303,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $303,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $303,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $303,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 632-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on marketlisting id $303,900 Active 1 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $319,900
19. 2026-04-02
    price $323,000
20. 2026-03-21
    listed $329,995 Active
21. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus $322,500 Closed
22. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus $322,500
23. 2023-04-01
    status Pending
24. 2023-03-30
    price $319,000
25. 2023-02-15
    listed $329,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,939 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,050/yr (+$87/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $299,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Listed $303,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $322,500 Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (MLS) $322,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-30 Price Changed $319,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-15 Listed $329,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,889 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.