4619 Inicio Ln · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,321 sqft · Condo public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2015 $182/sqft · 18% below area Est $292k · 18% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-Bedroom Home in East Austin. Light-Filled, Open-Plan Living. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence offers an open floor plan designed for effortless everyday living and entertaining. Freshly painted to prepare for sale, the home is move-in ready and radiates a modern, welcoming vibe. Seamless flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas creates a spacious, sociable atmosphere. Three bedrooms provide versatile spaces for family, guests, or a home office. The primary suite includes an en-suite bathroom and a private balcony. Private balcony off the primary bedroom offers a tranquil outdoor extension of your living space. Fresh, neutral paint throughout the home enhances

Key facts

• 6,194 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2015

Tags

• SHORT COMMUTE TO EAST AUSTIN
• SHORT COMMUTE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Chaparral Crossing; HOA fee of $45 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces (total)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public sewer; Private water source; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: 2-story residence; Faces northwest; Resale property
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Balcony; Shed(s); Wood fence; Back yard; Alley access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Built-in gas range; Gas range; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hornsby-Dunlap El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 599 students, 92% FRL); Dailey Middle (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 834 students, 94% FRL); Del Valle H S (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 3,460 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,668 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,683
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -17.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,629
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-88,598
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,812/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $203,420

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-139	+0% $-207	+5% $-275	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-283	+0% $-207	+5% $-131	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-146	base $-207	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	45d	1	0.05mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.08mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	45d	1	0.11mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	6d	1	0.12mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	6d	1	0.19mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	18d	1	0.21mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	6d	1	0.23mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	0.29mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.33mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	12d	1	0.34mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	25d	1	0.34mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	25d	1	0.38mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	23d	1	0.41mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	14d	1	0.43mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	23d	1	0.43mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	45d	1	0.71mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.72mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	6d	1	0.72mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.75mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	14d	1	0.76mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	25d	1	0.76mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	45d	1	0.77mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	25d	1	0.79mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	45d	1	0.85mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	4d	1	0.85mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	6d	1	0.88mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	4d	1	0.93mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	5d	1	0.94mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	25d	1	0.94mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	45d	1	0.98mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	45d	1	0.99mi
5706 Melody Ln Unit 3 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	45d	1	1.00mi
5706 Melody Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	45d	1	1.00mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	6d	1	1.01mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	45d	1	1.03mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	45d	1	1.07mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	46d	1	1.11mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	6d	1	1.22mi
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	1.32mi
6120 Diamondleaf Bnd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $250,000 Active 1016-char remark
16. 2025-06-18
    historical $1,750
17. 2025-06-18
    listed $1,750
18. 2022-01-19
    price $1,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,812 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,812
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$6,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $-887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13614.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $240,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $1,750 ACTRIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $1,750 ACTRIS
• 2022-01-19 Price Changed $1,750 RENT.

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,812 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.