25827 Water Ridge Dr · Houston, TX 77336

$194,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2019 10,450 sqft lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $199k · at est. $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced!! Cute 1 story waiting for someone to downsize and THE GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME! Home was completely remodeled in 2019 Including the following: ROOF, HVAC, AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, WATER WELL, FLOORS, KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Located on a quiet street with Luce Bayou view & private covered back patio. The Friendly neighborhood has two parks, a private boat launch, Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill.

Key facts

• Completely remodeled
• Private boat launch
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM
• PRIVATE COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,845 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,788
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -1.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25827 Water Ridge Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$194,900	$195	100
446 Havard Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	984 (-2%)	8mo	$159,000	$162	79
25611 Running Water Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	992 (-1%)	10mo	$149,000	$150	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,350
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-31,528
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $190,210

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $29	+0% $-27	+5% $-82	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-85	+0% $-27	+5% $31	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $23	base $-27	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25000 Farm to Market 2100 Unit 2100 Huffman, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,125	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Reduced!! Cute 1 story waiting for someone to downsize and THE GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME! Home was completely remodeled in 2019 Including the following: ROOF, HVAC, AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, WATER WELL, FLOORS, KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Located on a quiet street with Luce Bayou view & private covered back patio. The Friendly neighborhood has two parks, a private boat launch, Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Reduced!! Cute 1 story waiting for someone to downsize and THE GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME! Home was completely remodeled in 2019 Including the following: ROOF, HVAC, AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, WATER WELL, FLOORS, KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Located on a quiet street with Luce Bayou view & private covered back patio. The Friendly neighborhood has two parks, a private boat launch, Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $194,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Reduced!! Cute 1 story waiting for someone to downsize and THE GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME! Home was completely remodeled in 2019 Including the following: ROOF, HVAC, AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, WATER WELL, FLOORS, KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Located on a quiet street with Luce Bayou view & private covered back patio. The Friendly neighborhood has two parks, a private boat launch, Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $199,900 Active 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Reduced!! Cute 1 story waiting for someone to downsize and THE GENERAC RUNS THE WHOLE HOME! Home was completely remodeled in 2019 Including the following: ROOF, HVAC, AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, WATER WELL, FLOORS, KITCHEN, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Located on a quiet street with Luce Bayou view & private covered back patio. The Friendly neighborhood has two parks, a private boat launch, Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill.

5. 2020-05-06
   soldstatus
6. 2020-05-04
   soldstatus Sold 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   REDUCED !! NEW ROOF, NEW HVAC, NEW AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, NEW WATER WELL, NEW FLOORS, NEW KITCHEN, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Great remodel on quiet street with bayou view. Nice covered back patio. Friendly neighborhood with Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill. 3 Bedroom home remodeled next door for sale for 205k.

7. 2020-03-24
   status Pending 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   REDUCED !! NEW ROOF, NEW HVAC, NEW AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, NEW WATER WELL, NEW FLOORS, NEW KITCHEN, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Great remodel on quiet street with bayou view. Nice covered back patio. Friendly neighborhood with Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill. 3 Bedroom home remodeled next door for sale for 205k.

8. 2020-03-17
   status Option Pending 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   REDUCED !! NEW ROOF, NEW HVAC, NEW AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, NEW WATER WELL, NEW FLOORS, NEW KITCHEN, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Great remodel on quiet street with bayou view. Nice covered back patio. Friendly neighborhood with Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill. 3 Bedroom home remodeled next door for sale for 205k.

9. 2019-10-10
   price $144,900 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   REDUCED !! NEW ROOF, NEW HVAC, NEW AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, NEW WATER WELL, NEW FLOORS, NEW KITCHEN, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Great remodel on quiet street with bayou view. Nice covered back patio. Friendly neighborhood with Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill. 3 Bedroom home remodeled next door for sale for 205k.

10. 2019-08-02
    listed $149,900 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    REDUCED !! NEW ROOF, NEW HVAC, NEW AEROBIC DRIP SEWER SYSTEM, NEW WATER WELL, NEW FLOORS, NEW KITCHEN, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW RESTROOM, FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUT, etc, etc, etc. Great remodel on quiet street with bayou view. Nice covered back patio. Friendly neighborhood with Low taxes, Low HOA & No water bill. 3 Bedroom home remodeled next door for sale for 205k.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,591/yr (+$216/mo · 265.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$3,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$902
• After-tax cash flow: $584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-10 Price Changed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2019-08-02 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.