435 Elmwood Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$58,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1900 3,910 sqft lot $55/sqft · 26% below area Est $78k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this great investment property, or it could be a comfy 2 bed/2 bath (could be a third bedroom in the lower) family home in the heart of Niagara Falls, or you can use your own imagination and make it 3 bedrooms/2 baths. Just walking distance to the world-famous Niagara Falls. This is located in the Airbnb zone of Niagara Falls and ready for someone to come and finish up, start a great business. Unlimited potential. Just 10 minutes away from the Canadian Bridge, Niagara Gorge, Aquarium, Whirlpool State Park, Memorial Hospital, Casino, and many more. First floor features a living room (could be a good-sized bedroom with your imagination), dining room, large kitchen, many storage spaces, and a full bath. Second floor has two bedrooms and another full bath almost ready to finish. Two-car garage opens to the alleyway. Partial, fully reinforced, solid basement has a newer furnace, newer water tank, and circuit breaker box. Roof is about 10 years old. Freshly painted throughout with laminate floors in both upper and lower. This may be a perfect match for your needs. Beautiful spring is here, and anyone wanting to take on a project—this will be a good fit. Or if anyone is thinking about expanding a short-term rental business or any long-term rental, don’t think twice. Showings begin immediately. Unfortunately, the seller doesn't have the ability to finish up the work. VERY MOTIVATED SELLER. Sold "as is. "

Key facts

• 3,910 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.59%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,430
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -26.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1133 Whitney Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,057 (0%)	3mo	$76,100	$72	67
1145 Whitney Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	992 (-6%)	1mo	$105,100	$106	60
627 13th St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+6%)	4mo	$110,000	$98	52
1145 Linwood Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-2%)	17mo	$38,000	$37	50
426 6th St	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,174 (+11%)	4mo	$87,000	$74	47
1151 Whitney Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	960 (-9%)	22mo	$26,000	$27	40
1320 La Salle Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+11%)	18mo	$90,000	$77	36
1318 Ashland Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,192 (+13%)	16mo	$25,000	$21	31
1304 Ashland Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-15%)	18mo	$52,000	$58	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $62,361
• Equity at exit: $52,251

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.05×
• Total profit: $179,399
• Equity at exit: $112,681

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $403	+0% $387	+5% $371	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $342	+0% $387	+5% $432	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $402	base $387	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.11mi
700 Pine Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1075	$1,075	$1.00	12d	1	0.29mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	24d	1	0.36mi
510 6th St Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$900	$0.95	44d	1	0.49mi
460 3rd St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,212	$1.67	2d	1	0.55mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	0.66mi
616 Niagara St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,288	$1.72	2d	1	0.66mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.70mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.71mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.85mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.93mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	0.96mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	0.98mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.08mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 4 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	44d	1	1.08mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.08mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	2d	1	1.14mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.20mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	1.21mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	1.21mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	15d	1	1.31mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	1.40mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.46mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $58,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $65,000 Active 1452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1452 chars)

    Welcome to this great investment property, or it could be a comfy 2 bed/2 bath (could be a third bedroom in the lower) family home in the heart of Niagara Falls, or you can use your own imagination and make it 3 bedrooms/2 baths. Just walking distance to the world-famous Niagara Falls. This is located in the Airbnb zone of Niagara Falls and ready for someone to come and finish up, start a great business. Unlimited potential. Just 10 minutes away from the Canadian Bridge, Niagara Gorge, Aquarium, Whirlpool State Park, Memorial Hospital, Casino, and many more. First floor features a living room (could be a good-sized bedroom with your imagination), dining room, large kitchen, many storage spaces, and a full bath. Second floor has two bedrooms and another full bath almost ready to finish. Two-car garage opens to the alleyway. Partial, fully reinforced, solid basement has a newer furnace, newer water tank, and circuit breaker box. Roof is about 10 years old. Freshly painted throughout with laminate floors in both upper and lower. This may be a perfect match for your needs. Beautiful spring is here, and anyone wanting to take on a project—this will be a good fit. Or if anyone is thinking about expanding a short-term rental business or any long-term rental, don’t think twice. Showings begin immediately. Unfortunately, the seller doesn't have the ability to finish up the work. VERY MOTIVATED SELLER. Sold "as is. "

16. 2025-11-26
    historical
17. 2025-11-05
    price $69,900
18. 2025-09-20
    price $59,900
19. 2025-08-26
    listed $69,900 Active
20. 2025-06-06
    status Active
21. 2025-04-22
    status Pending
22. 2025-04-05
    price $69,000
23. 2025-03-09
    listed $72,900 Active
24. 2024-07-16
    listed $74,900 Active
25. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,250 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,250 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $4,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$970
• After-tax cash flow: $3,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-06 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $69,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-09 Listed $72,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,250 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.