11316 Highway 305 · Lipscomb, TX 79056

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#760 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Follett ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #494 of 1,141 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lipscomb County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.69%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $28,931
• Equity at exit: $31,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $74,317
• Equity at exit: $48,507

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79056

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-02-15
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the exterior siding. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and in poor condition
• Moderate exterior siding — weathered and in need of repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint exterior siding — improving the exterior would enhance curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and in need of repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$21,000–80,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — improving the exterior would enhance curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Follett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819500
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,798
• Composite: 41.61/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #494 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Lipscomb

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #760
• US rank: #13941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 99

Population outlook (Lipscomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,045 people
• By 2030: 4,275 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 4,723 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 5,121 · +26.6%
• By 2075: 5,959 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 6,040 · +49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lipscomb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.6) · D 9.8% · R 89.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -74.7pp · 2024: -79.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.6 2020: R+79.4 2016: R+77.5 2012: R+79.2 2008: R+74.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Listed $70,000 AARMLS