6612 Jarrett Ct · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$720,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 2004 5,519 sqft lot $283/sqft · 8% below area Est $781k · 8% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-appointed home offers approximately 2,548 square feet of living space. With five bedrooms and three bathrooms, it provides ample room for comfortable living. The spacious primary bedroom features abundant natural light and an ensuite bathroom. The additional four bedrooms are well-proportioned and offer flexible options for use. The three bathrooms are tastefully appointed with modern fixtures and finishes. The open-concept layout of the main living areas creates a seamless flow, allowing for effortless entertaining and family gatherings. The property's features and amenities make it an ideal setting for a variety of lifestyles and needs. Stainless steel appliances with new carpet

Key facts

• 5,519 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $720k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (52.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (52.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $77k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$124k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $720k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,838 (52.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.74%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 17.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $780,753
• List price: $720,000
• Delta: -7.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6704 Rawley Way	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,685 (+5%)	1mo	$765,000	$285	81
9635 Red Current Way	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,553 (+0%)	2mo	$660,000	$259	76
5817 Spring Flower Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,553 (+0%)	2mo	$668,000	$262	75
9560 Fox Flower Ct	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,475 (-3%)	4mo	$680,000	$275	73
9700 Great Egret Ct	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,534 (-0%)	7mo	$720,000	$284	71
7205 Abruzzo Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,520 (-1%)	1mo	$748,000	$297	71
6104 Doubloon Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,565 (+1%)	0mo	$1,325,000	$517	65
7209 Danberg Way	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,315 (-9%)	1mo	$684,000	$295	61
5578 Lilyview Way	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,578 (+1%)	5mo	$825,000	$320	60
6505 Lennox Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,272 (-11%)	0mo	$691,000	$304	53
6120 Doubloon Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,317 (-9%)	4mo	$830,000	$358	48
9455 Foulks Ranch Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,272 (-11%)	6mo	$655,000	$288	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $282,267
• Equity at exit: $648,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $932,695
• Equity at exit: $1,398,802

Cash invested: $201,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 17.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,776
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,968/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-1,805

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,683

Max offer price $401,136

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $180,000
• Closing costs: $21,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9637 Misty Blue Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2605	$2,925	$1.12	43d	1	0.25mi
9772 Ellsmere Way Elk Grove, CA	5.0	4.0	3164	$3,700	$1.17	7d	1	0.30mi
9772 Ellsmere Way Elk Grove, CA	5.0	3.5	3164	$3,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.30mi
9732 Marianna Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2090	$3,300	$1.58	43d	1	0.53mi
5819 Witt Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2090	$2,900	$1.39	44d	1	0.60mi
7104 Saltgrass Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,750	$1.51	43d	1	0.65mi
9867 Tarzo Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.0	1905	$2,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.66mi
7405 Rothschild Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,650	$1.43	2d	1	0.67mi
5708 Foxview Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,845	$1.34	43d	1	0.91mi
9835 Peters Ranch Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2900	$3,150	$1.09	23d	1	1.08mi
9773 Philta Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2564	$3,500	$1.37	4d	1	1.20mi
4812 Coppola Cir Elk Grove, CA	5.0	3.0	2875	$1,200	$0.42	43d	1	1.20mi
8461 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2250	$2,600	$1.16	44d	1	1.29mi
10157 Lofton Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	1921	$2,995	$1.56	43d	1	1.37mi
8008 Poppy Ridge Rd Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2073	$3,375	$1.63	23d	1	1.40mi
5418 Halas Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2650	$3,500	$1.32	17d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2010-05-19
   soldstatus $260,000
2. 2004-12-22
   soldstatus $470,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,968 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,331
• − Property taxes: −$4,968
• − Insurance: −$3,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,262
• − Management: −$3,262
• − Depreciation: −$20,945
• Taxable loss: −$35,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-44.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2010-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $470,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,968 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.