129 Maple Ave · Licking, MO 65542

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Other public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1947 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Within walking distance of the Licking Public School System, this home is conveniently located in the center of town. This is an amazing starting investment for anyone looking to get a fixer-upper!

Key facts

• Center of town
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1947

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOL
• CENTER OF TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.3% in Licking — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Licking R-VIII (rural): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #203 of 324 in MO (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.48%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $41,646
• Equity at exit: $20,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $97,553
• Equity at exit: $32,336

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65542

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $345

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $587	-5% $574	+0% $562	+5% $549	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $520	+0% $562	+5% $603	+10% $645
Rate	-1.0pp $584	-0.5pp $573	base $562	+0.5pp $550	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-10-07
   price $45,000 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Within walking distance of the Licking Public School System, this home is conveniently located in the center of town. This is an amazing starting investment for anyone looking to get a fixer-upper!

2. 2025-06-17
   listed $55,000 Active 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Within walking distance of the Licking Public School System, this home is conveniently located in the center of town. This is an amazing starting investment for anyone looking to get a fixer-upper!

3. 2023-12-12
   historical
4. 2023-11-08
   status Active
5. 2023-11-08
   status Active
6. 2023-11-08
   historical
7. 2023-11-08
   historical
8. 2023-08-30
   status Active
9. 2023-08-22
   historical
10. 2023-07-07
    price $39,000
11. 2023-07-07
    price $39,000
12. 2022-11-08
    listed $42,000 Active
13. 2022-11-08
    listed $42,000 Active
14. 2013-08-20
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $218 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$218/yr (+$18/mo · 100.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $5,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Licking R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2918600
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,880
• Composite: 30.41/100
• National rank: #6248
• State rank: #203 of 324 in MO

Livability — Licking

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12566

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Licking, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Texas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,648 people
• By 2030: 23,981 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 22,840 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 21,832 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,481 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 16,634 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Texas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.1pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.6 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+35.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Current HPI: 228.0581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+12.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Listed $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Relisted — SOMO
• 2023-11-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-22 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $39,000 SOMO
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $39,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Listed $42,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Listed $42,000 SOMO
• 2013-08-20 Listed $39,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $218 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.