815 San Miguel St · North Alamo, TX 78589

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2010 5,502 sqft lot $74/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL!!! This cozy 4 Bedroom 4 Bath home is conveniently located in San Juan Tx near Schools, Restaurants & Stores. This property could be a great opportunity for a home flip. The Exterior features a built in BBQ Pit/Chimney. Its open concept layout is great for family gatherings. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Tile flooring
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• TRAY CEILINGS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• GAS RANGE
• BREAKFAST BAR PASS-THROUGH
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#941 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.11%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,467
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -48.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
726 San Ignacio St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-2%)	4mo	$172,178	$131	81
720 San Ignacio St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-2%)	4mo	$173,406	$131	81
728 San Ignacio St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	4mo	$170,172	$131	80
722 San Ignacio St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+1%)	7mo	$205,000	$149	79
2805 Grandora Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-3%)	0mo	$219,899	$167	76
729 San Martin St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-4%)	5mo	$199,900	$154	76
904 E 38th St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,320 (-2%)	7mo	$249,500	$189	72
912 41st St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+6%)	2mo	$249,900	$175	65
3801 La Paloma Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+9%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	64
2404 Monte Grande Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+2%)	8mo	$218,000	$158	55
713 San Lucas St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	7mo	$189,900	$124	51
2705 Grandora Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+14%)	3mo	$169,000	$110	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $10,768
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $44,284
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $451	+0% $423	+5% $394	+10% $366
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $364	+0% $423	+5% $481	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $448	base $423	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 Fitzgerald St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.76mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	24d	1	0.92mi
105 Lauryn Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.97mi
200 Lauryn Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	14d	1	1.03mi
304 Lauryn Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	1.12mi
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	1.13mi
1126 Grandeur Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	14d	1	1.13mi
304 S Ridge Ln Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$975	$0.87	44d	1	1.14mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	44d	1	1.21mi
1809 N Mangrove St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,950	$1.40	19d	1	1.26mi
1236 N Alamo Rd Alamo, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,250	$0.91	44d	1	1.35mi
1709 Calle Tulipan San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,750	$0.95	44d	1	1.43mi
1309 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.44mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $100,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $105,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $105,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-04-23
    price $105,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!!! This cozy 4 Bedroom 4 Bath home is conveniently located in San Juan Tx near Schools, Restaurants & Stores. This property could be a great opportunity for a home flip. The Exterior features a built in BBQ Pit/Chimney. Its open concept layout is great for family gatherings. Book your showing today!

12. 2026-01-27
    listed $115,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!!! This cozy 4 Bedroom 4 Bath home is conveniently located in San Juan Tx near Schools, Restaurants & Stores. This property could be a great opportunity for a home flip. The Exterior features a built in BBQ Pit/Chimney. Its open concept layout is great for family gatherings. Book your showing today!

13. 2025-11-06
    listed $137,500 Active
14. 2025-11-03
    price $137,500
15. 2025-10-21
    price $139,999
16. 2025-10-08
    listed $144,999 Active
17. 2025-09-21
    listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $4,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — North Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #941
• US rank: #16730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Alamo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $105,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $137,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $137,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $139,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $144,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $149,999 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,294 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.