Waterton Plan · Republic, MO 65738

$218,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for curb appeal and an open layout at a great value, then the Waterton should top your list. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is a wonderful family home. It features a beautiful master suite as well as two additional bedrooms upstairs. The loft area at the top of the stairs can be used as a rec room, study area, or playroom. The open kitchen/dining/great room will keep the family connected, while the upstairs provides necessary privacy. All in all, the Waterton is a stylish example of the Summit Collection of homes-where quality and value meet.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 953 days

🏗️ New construction. The $218,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,099.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,099
• List price: $218,500
• Delta: -15.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1214 E Habersham St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	4mo	$265,985	$197	85
1331 Abercorn St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+3%)	3mo	$259,000	$180	84
1188 E Abercorn St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	4mo	$265,585	$197	84
1164 E Abercorn St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+6%)	1mo	$269,128	$183	83
1218 E Abercorn St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+6%)	2mo	$269,904	$183	81
1479 E Drayton Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	2mo	$249,900	$187	80
1213 Abercorn St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+6%)	6mo	$269,944	$183	79
1538 S Montgomery Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	2mo	$259,900	$195	79
1559 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+6%)	2mo	$285,301	$194	78
1537 S Olde Savannah Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+3%)	4mo	$265,000	$185	77
1522 S Bull Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+8%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	70
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+10%)	1mo	$285,000	$185	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-58,485
• Equity at exit: $38,782

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-68,474
• Equity at exit: $22,489

Cash invested: $72,828 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,901/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $220,212

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-186	+0% $-276	+5% $-366	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-352	+0% $-276	+5% $-200	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-145	-0.5pp $-209	base $-276	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,025
• Closing costs: $7,803
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	14d	1	0.28mi
1338 S Marseilles Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,575	$1.04	44d	1	1.15mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	44d	1	1.17mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	14d	1	1.19mi
419 W Barcelona St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,650	$1.24	24d	1	1.28mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	44d	1	1.33mi
1361 S Lorraine Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	14d	1	1.42mi
576 W Danielle St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,500 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,500 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,500 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,500 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $218,500 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,500 Active 947 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $218,500 Active 945 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,500 Active 944 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,500 Active 943 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 942 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $218,500 Active 939 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,500 Active 938 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $218,500 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $218,500 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,500 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $218,500 Active 934 DOM
17. 2023-11-08
    listed $218,500 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    If you're looking for curb appeal and an open layout at a great value, then the Waterton should top your list. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is a wonderful family home. It features a beautiful master suite as well as two additional bedrooms upstairs. The loft area at the top of the stairs can be used as a rec room, study area, or playroom. The open kitchen/dining/great room will keep the family connected, while the upstairs provides necessary privacy. All in all, the Waterton is a stylish example of the Summit Collection of homes-where quality and value meet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,570
• − Property taxes: −$3,901
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$7,567
• Taxable loss: −$7,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home with excellent curb appeal and a good layout is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily enhanced with minor updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $218,500 Zillow