Waterton Plan · Republic, MO 65738

$218,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for curb appeal and an open layout at a great value, then the Waterton should top your list. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is a wonderful family home. It features a beautiful master suite as well as two additional bedrooms upstairs. The loft area at the top of the stairs can be used as a rec room, study area, or playroom. The open kitchen/dining/great room will keep the family connected, while the upstairs provides necessary privacy. All in all, the Waterton is a stylish example of the Summit Collection of homes-where quality and value meet.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $218,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,687.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcculloch Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 454 students, 34% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 554 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,687
• List price: $218,500
• Delta: -16.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1447 S Barnard Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+6%)	0mo	$273,258	$185	84
1395 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	0mo	$272,012	$202	83
1513 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	1mo	$270,965	$201	82
1537 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	2mo	$270,679	$201	82
1425 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+6%)	0mo	$284,877	$192	78
1491 E Charlton St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	0mo	$269,942	$200	75
1349 E Macon St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+6%)	1mo	$269,000	$181	69
1371 E Macon St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+6%)	0mo	$279,900	$188	68
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+10%)	3mo	$285,000	$185	62
1211 E Habersham St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+13%)	2mo	$318,226	$201	61
1753 E Macon St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (+9%)	0mo	$259,900	$171	56
548 E Whitethorn Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-12%)	2mo	$240,000	$195	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,441
• Equity at exit: $39,018

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-70,207
• Equity at exit: $22,626

Cash invested: $73,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $276,696 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 334 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 554
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,925/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,289

Max offer price $220,212

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-196	+0% $-287	+5% $-377	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-363	+0% $-287	+5% $-211	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-220	base $-287	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,422
• Closing costs: $7,851
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	63d	1	0.28mi
1338 S Marseilles Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,575	$1.04	93d	1	1.15mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	93d	1	1.17mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	63d	1	1.19mi
419 W Barcelona St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,650	$1.24	72d	1	1.28mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	93d	1	1.33mi
1361 S Lorraine Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	63d	1	1.42mi
576 W Danielle St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	63d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $218,500 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $218,500 Active 1003 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $218,500 Active 1002 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $218,500 Active 1001 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $218,500 Active 1000 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $218,500 Active 999 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $218,500 Active 996 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $218,500 Active 995 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $218,500 Active 994 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $218,500 Active 992 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $218,500 Active 990 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $218,500 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $218,500 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $218,500 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $218,500 Active 983 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $218,500 Active 981 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $218,500 Active 980 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $218,500 Active 979 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $218,500 Active 978 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $218,500 Active 977 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $218,500 Active 976 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $218,500 Active 975 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $218,500 Active 974 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $218,500 Active 973 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 972 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $218,500 Active 971 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $218,500 Active 970 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $218,500 Active 969 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $218,500 Active 968 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $218,500 Active 967 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $218,500 Active 966 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $218,500 Active 965 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $218,500 Active 964 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 963 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 962 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $218,500 Active 961 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $218,500 Active 959 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $218,500 Active 957 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $218,500 Active 956 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $218,500 Active 953 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $218,500 Active 952 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $218,500 Active 951 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $218,500 Active 950 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $218,500 Active 948 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $218,500 Active 947 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $218,500 Active 945 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $218,500 Active 944 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $218,500 Active 943 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 942 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $218,500 Active 939 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,659
• − Property taxes: −$3,925
• − Insurance: −$1,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$7,613
• Taxable loss: −$8,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,941
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home with excellent curb appeal and a good layout is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily enhanced with minor updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcculloch Elementary C- MO #231/1,115 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Republic Middle C MO #57/391 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Republic High C MO #48/521 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 319,054 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $218,500 Zillow