Waterton Plan · Republic, MO 65738

$218,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 1096 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for curb appeal and an open layout at a great value, then the Waterton should top your list. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is a wonderful family home. It features a beautiful master suite as well as two additional bedrooms upstairs. The loft area at the top of the stairs can be used as a rec room, study area, or playroom. The open kitchen/dining/great room will keep the family connected, while the upstairs provides necessary privacy. All in all, the Waterton is a stylish example of the Summit Collection of homes-where quality and value meet.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 1095 days

🏗️ New construction. The $218,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,924.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcculloch Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 454 students, 34% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 696 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,658 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,924
• List price: $218,500
• Delta: -19.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1447 S Barnard Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+6%)	3mo	$273,258	$185	82
1395 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	3mo	$272,012	$202	80
1217 E Macon St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	1mo	$269,999	$185	78
1425 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+6%)	3mo	$284,877	$192	76
1333 E Price St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	2mo	$255,000	$169	75
1459 E Habersham St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	0mo	$289,900	$190	74
1491 E Charlton St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	4mo	$269,942	$200	73
1581 E Charlton St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+6%)	2mo	$274,993	$187	69
1371 E Macon St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+6%)	3mo	$279,900	$188	66
1448 E Charlton St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+11%)	0mo	$284,951	$184	65
405 E Whitethorn Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+1%)	1mo	$269,900	$191	62
1753 E Macon St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (+9%)	3mo	$259,900	$171	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-73,237
• Equity at exit: $40,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-98,121
• Equity at exit: $23,511

Cash invested: $76,139 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,799 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 357 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 696
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,079/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $203,088

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-288	-5% $-382	+0% $-476	+5% $-570	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-616	-5% $-546	+0% $-476	+5% $-406	+10% $-335
Rate	-1.0pp $-339	-0.5pp $-407	base $-476	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,981
• Closing costs: $8,158
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1460 Habersham St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,900	$1.25	0d	1	0.21mi
1717 E Macon St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,945	$1.28	49d	1	0.23mi
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	154d	1	0.28mi
210 S Kyle Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,295	$1.15	10d	1	0.95mi
210 S Kyle Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,295	$1.15	12d	1	0.95mi
2124 E Primrose St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,500	$1.18	0d	1	1.09mi
2124 E Primrose St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,575	$1.24	19d	1	1.09mi
2113 E Primrose St Unit 2113 Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,100	$1.07	10d	1	1.10mi
105 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	2d	1	1.14mi
1338 S Marseilles Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,575	$1.04	184d	1	1.15mi
301 W Corsica St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,795	$1.25	29d	1	1.15mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	184d	1	1.17mi
632 S Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,400	$1.07	0d	1	1.18mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	154d	1	1.19mi
387 W Madrid St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	0d	1	1.24mi
240 E Mill St Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,395	$1.08	10d	1	1.25mi
240 E Mill St Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,395	$1.08	1d	1	1.25mi
1055 S Calabria Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,895	$1.20	11d	1	1.26mi
1055 S Calabria Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,895	$1.20	0d	1	1.26mi
419 W Barcelona St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,650	$1.24	164d	1	1.28mi
106 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	18d	1	1.31mi
106 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	10d	1	1.31mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	184d	1	1.33mi
1361 S Lorraine Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	154d	1	1.42mi
576 W Danielle St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	154d	1	1.47mi
1315 S Normandy Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	38d	1	1.48mi
555 W Melody Ln Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,850	$1.17	29d	1	1.48mi
1351 S Normandy Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $218,500 Active 1096 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $218,500 Active 1095 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $218,500 Active 1094 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $218,500 Active 1093 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $218,500 Active 1092 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $218,500 Active 1090 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $218,500 Active 1089 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $218,500 Active 1088 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $218,500 Active 1087 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $218,500 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $218,500 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $218,500 Active 1083 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $218,500 Active 1082 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $218,500 Active 1081 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $218,500 Active 1080 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $218,500 Active 1079 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $218,500 Active 1078 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $218,500 Active 1077 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $218,500 Active 1076 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $218,500 Active 1075 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $218,500 Active 1074 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $218,500 Active 1073 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $218,500 Active 1072 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $218,500 Active 1071 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $218,500 Active 1070 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $218,500 Active 1069 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $218,500 Active 1068 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $218,500 Active 1067 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $218,500 Active 1066 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $218,500 Active 1065 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 1064 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $218,500 Active 1063 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $218,500 Active 1062 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $218,500 Active 1061 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $218,500 Active 1060 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $218,500 Active 1059 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $218,500 Active 1058 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $218,500 Active 1057 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $218,500 Active 1056 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $218,500 Active 1055 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $218,500 Active 1054 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $218,500 Active 1053 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $218,500 Active 1052 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $218,500 Active 1051 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $218,500 Active 1050 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $218,500 Active 1049 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $218,500 Active 1048 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $218,500 Active 1047 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $218,500 Active 1045 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,232
• − Property taxes: −$4,079
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$7,911
• Taxable loss: −$10,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home with excellent curb appeal and a good layout is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily enhanced with minor updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcculloch Elementary C- MO #231/1,115 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Republic Middle C MO #57/391 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Republic High C MO #48/521 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 319,054 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $218,500 Zillow