2204 Zanderson · Jourdanton, TX 78026

$98,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

0.34 ac lot Est $190k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Good starter home that needs a little TLC or investment property for a rental.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jourdanton El (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 468 students, 60% FRL); Jourdanton H S (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 442 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,545 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2204 Zanderson	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$98,500	$79	99
920 Maple	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-0%)	6mo	$220,000	$176	69
1104 Walnut	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-5%)	16mo	$179,999	$152	59
906 County Line	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	6mo	$185,000	$150	56
1805 Mcdowell Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-14%)	18mo	$40,000	$37	49
1414 Young Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	6mo	$175,000	$159	41
1201 Palmetto St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+12%)	20mo	$85,000	$61	38
1312 Commerce St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+8%)	20mo	$210,000	$155	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,761
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $28,708
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78026

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,374/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $851

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $337	+0% $309	+5% $282	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $211	-5% $260	+0% $309	+5% $359	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $334	base $309	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Commerce St Jourdanton, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.44mi
113 Ocotillo Jourdanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,530	$0.97	3d	1	1.29mi
113 Ocotillo Jourdanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,596	$1.02	4d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-03-01
   listed $98,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,374 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,374
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $2,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $3,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jourdanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824960
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,581
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4116
• State rank: #258 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jourdanton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #9531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jourdanton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,438

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 20% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.13%
• Current HPI: 205.0473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-29 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-01 Listed $98,500 LERA

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,374 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.