6540 Virginiatown Rd #30 · Newcastle, CA 95658

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 621 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $224/sqft · 157% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this brand-new home, thoughtfully designed with modern finishes and everyday convenience in mind. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, including a gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, complemented by elegant stone countertops. Inside, you'll find 2 bedrooms, the added convenience of in-home full size washer and dryer hookups. The welcoming community includes access to the river including an area with a firepit, a park area, horseshoe throwing, and a laundry room facility. This property is ready for you to call it home.

Key facts

• Park area
• Firepit
• Stone countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• ACCESS TO THE RIVER
• FIREPIT
• PARK AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 1.6% in Newcastle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#792 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Western Placer Unified (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #148 of 517 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.87%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,187
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 156.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6540 Virginiatown Rd #5	0.01mi	2/1.0	600 (-3%)	7mo	$55,000	$92	88
1300 Gold Hill Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	576 (-7%)	14mo	$700,000	$1,215	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,812
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $86,966
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95658

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $7,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,806
• After-tax cash flow: $7,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with some exterior painting and landscaping to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Placer Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,025
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3130
• State rank: #148 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,197

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.40%
• Current HPI: 288.3247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B