1820 Chestnut St · Helena, MT 59601

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• New gas range
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW CABINETS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax approximately $304.10

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Other foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.6% in Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#6 in MT, #1,389 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Helena H S (town): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #42 of 116 in MT (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.18%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,744
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 Boulder Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	848 (-5%)	5mo	$349,000	$412	63
1745 Walnut St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (+13%)	10mo	$179,000	$177	56
1514 Boulder Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	845 (-6%)	2mo	$369,000	$437	54
1405 N Sanders St	0.49mi	2/1.0	825 (-8%)	16mo	$280,000	$339	51
1500 Boulder Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	828 (-8%)	17mo	$310,999	$376	47
1409 Poplar St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+12%)	18mo	$329,000	$326	45
1208 Poplar St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+14%)	17mo	$339,000	$332	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $18,109
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $51,990
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59601

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $575	+0% $544	+5% $513	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $486	+0% $544	+5% $602	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $566	base $544	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2115 Missoula Ave Helena, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0	801	$1,262	$1.58	44d	11	0.80mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    status Active
19. 2026-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-02-11
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $5,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Helena H S
• NCES district ID: 3013830
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,565
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #4238
• State rank: #42 of 116 in MT

Livability — Helena

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #1389

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Helena, MT
• County: Lewis and Clark County · 62,482 people
• City population: 62,482
• Metro: Helena, MT
• Population (ZIP): 31,728
• Household income: $72,290
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1080.0

Population outlook (Lewis and Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,720 people
• By 2030: 75,403 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 79,496 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 82,741 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 90,296 · +24.2%
• By 2100: 93,425 · +28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis and Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 45.4% · R 51.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -417.31%
• Current HPI: 231.6233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Helena, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $89,000 MRMLS