16900 West Juneau · Conroe, TX 77316

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 2020 2,256 sqft lot Est $160k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a newer home within minutes of Lake Conroe? This beautiful 1-story home is four years new located in the community of Lake Conroe Village. Tile flooring flows throughout this four years new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Tons of designer upgrades including top-of-the-line fixtures, custom cabinetry and more. This gourmet kitchen includes expansive cabinets, beautiful backsplash, Stainless Steel appliances & granite countertops. The master suite is spacious and includes a walk in closet. Great sized secondary bedrooms. Six years remaining on new home warranty through Home of Texas! Zoned to acclaimed Montgomery ISD schools. Call today to schedule a private showing!

Key facts

• Designer upgrades
• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk in closet

Tags

• DESIGNER UPGRADES
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• MONTGOMERY ISD SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Lake Conroe Village community; Annual association fee of $350

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Facing composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2020; Cement siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Porch; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot with side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Electric cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,212
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16900 West Juneau	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	99
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	89
16965 W Hammon	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	86
16891 W Dounreay St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	86
16895 W Dounreay St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	85
16899 W Dounreay St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+2%)	6mo	$161,900	$157	84
241 Ridgeside	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-0%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	84
16729 E Hammon	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+6%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	81
16725 E Hammon	0.14mi	3/2.0	958 (-6%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	80
16938 W Lynbrook St	0.10mi	3/2.0	940 (-7%)	5mo	$157,900	$168	79
16902 W Alderson	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+4%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	77
846 Omeara	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+8%)	2mo	$170,000	$155	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,380
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,306
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $258	+0% $214	+5% $171	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $148	+0% $214	+5% $281	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $253	base $214	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.07mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.11mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.22mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	25d	1	0.62mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	0.79mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.95mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	21d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-05
   price $153,000
4. 2025-11-07
   price $158,000
5. 2025-10-09
   listed $170,000 Active
6. 2025-03-11
   historical $1,300
7. 2025-03-10
   historical
8. 2025-02-17
   listed $1,300
9. 2025-01-13
   price $174,000
10. 2024-11-20
    listed $179,000 Active
11. 2022-09-20
    historical
12. 2022-09-06
    price $192,900
13. 2022-08-03
    price $198,000
14. 2022-07-18
    price $207,000
15. 2022-07-06
    price $209,990
16. 2022-06-17
    listed $219,900 Active
17. 2020-08-24
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2020-07-18
    status Pending
19. 2020-07-06
    status Option Pending
20. 2020-06-09
    listed $129,999 Active
21. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,800 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $153,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $192,900 HARMLS
• 2022-08-03 Price Changed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $207,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-17 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-09 Listed $129,999 HARMLS
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+36.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.