3407 Highland Forge Trl · Dacula, GA 30019

$550,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1999 0.37 ac lot Est $578k · at est. $103/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled in the highly sought-after Hamilton Mill community. Priced below market value, this is a rare chance to get into one of Gwinnett County's most desirable neighborhoods while building instant equity with a few finishing touches. Brand-new carpet throughout and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring granite countertops means much of the updating is already done. The finished basement takes entertaining to the next level with a dedicated theater room, perfect for movie nights and game days. With 5 generously sized bedrooms and 4 full baths, there's space for everyone to spread out. Top-rated schools, resort-style swim and tennis amenities, and a vibrant community make Hamilton Mill an address people love to call home. A little personalization goes a long way here - and the savings are already built into the price

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,240 covering swim and tennis; Community clubhouse and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Three or more levels; Resale property
• Construction: Brick front and HardiPlank-style siding; Composition roof; Block foundation; Property listed as resale
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Deck; Finished full basement with interior and exterior entry and finished bath

Interior

• Kitchen: White cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Four upper-level bedrooms; Bedroom(s) with no special features listed
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms total; One full bath on main level; Two full baths on upper level; One full bath on lower level; Master bath with double vanity, soaking tub, vaulted ceiling and whirlpool tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Factory-built fireplace in the family room; Double vanity in bath(s); Double-pane windows; No shared/common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room located on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $523k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $456k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Dacula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#211 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Puckett'S Mill Elementary School (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #39 of 1,228 statewide, top 3%, 780 students, 22% FRL); Osborne Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #33 of 470 statewide, top 7%, 1,667 students, 25% FRL); Mill Creek High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 424 statewide, top 15%, 2,839 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gwinnett County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,558/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 630% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($542k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $550k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,777 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $578,004
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3407 Highland Forge Trl	0.00mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,932 (0%)	1mo	$550,000	$140	88
1495 Mill Place Dr	0.19mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,094 (+4%)	5mo	$607,000	$148	68
1973 Hamilton Mill Pkwy	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,942 (+0%)	2mo	$558,000	$142	60
1521 Rocky Knoll Ln	0.75mi	4/3.5	3,915 (-0%)	2mo	$500,000	$128	58
3004 Grove View Ct	0.27mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,314 (+10%)	2mo	$575,000	$133	58
3423 Mulberry Lane Ct	0.67mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,015 (+2%)	1mo	$590,000	$147	51
2955 Windsong Park Ln	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	4,090 (+4%)	4mo	$467,000	$114	50
1603 Caldwell Bend Ln	0.55mi	4/4.5	3,504 (-11%)	9mo	$690,050	$197	40
1663 Caldwell Bend Ln	0.58mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,504 (-11%)	2mo	$630,000	$180	40
1643 Caldwell Bend Ln	0.55mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,504 (-11%)	6mo	$625,000	$178	38
3078 Turning Creek Trl	0.71mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,300 (+9%)	2mo	$879,000	$204	37
3432 Fielders Pt	0.73mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,488 (-11%)	2mo	$485,000	$139	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-93,949
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-73,640
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30019

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,558 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,453/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$957
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,752

Max offer price $522,881

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $2	+0% $-154	+5% $-309	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-334	+0% $-154	+5% $27	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $-14	base $-154	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1254 Six Sisters St Dacula, GA	5.0	5.5	3915	$6,000	$1.53	47d	1	0.48mi
3459 In Bloom Way Auburn, GA	5.0	3.0	3196	$3,000	$0.94	19d	1	1.31mi
1925 Heatherton Rd Dacula, GA	5.0	3.0	4198	$3,200	$0.76	25d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract 883-char remark

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled in the highly sought-after Hamilton Mill community. Priced below market value, this is a rare chance to get into one of Gwinnett County's most desirable neighborhoods while building instant equity with a few finishing touches. Brand-new carpet throughout and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring granite countertops means much of the updating is already done. The finished basement takes entertaining to the next level with a dedicated theater room, perfect for movie nights and game days. With 5 generously sized bedrooms and 4 full baths, there's space for everyone to spread out. Top-rated schools, resort-style swim and tennis amenities, and a vibrant community make Hamilton Mill an address people love to call home. A little personalization goes a long way here - and the savings are already built into the price

2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled in the highly sought-after Hamilton Mill community. Priced below market value, this is a rare chance to get into one of Gwinnett County's most desirable neighborhoods while building instant equity with a few finishing touches. Brand-new carpet throughout and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring granite countertops means much of the updating is already done. The finished basement takes entertaining to the next level with a dedicated theater room, perfect for movie nights and game days. With 5 generously sized bedrooms and 4 full baths, there's space for everyone to spread out. Top-rated schools, resort-style swim and tennis amenities, and a vibrant community make Hamilton Mill an address people love to call home. A little personalization goes a long way here - and the savings are already built into the price

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $550,000 New 883-char remark

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled in the highly sought-after Hamilton Mill community. Priced below market value, this is a rare chance to get into one of Gwinnett County's most desirable neighborhoods while building instant equity with a few finishing touches. Brand-new carpet throughout and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring granite countertops means much of the updating is already done. The finished basement takes entertaining to the next level with a dedicated theater room, perfect for movie nights and game days. With 5 generously sized bedrooms and 4 full baths, there's space for everyone to spread out. Top-rated schools, resort-style swim and tennis amenities, and a vibrant community make Hamilton Mill an address people love to call home. A little personalization goes a long way here - and the savings are already built into the price

4. 2026-04-10
   listed $550,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled in the highly sought-after Hamilton Mill community. Priced below market value, this is a rare chance to get into one of Gwinnett County's most desirable neighborhoods while building instant equity with a few finishing touches. Brand-new carpet throughout and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring granite countertops means much of the updating is already done. The finished basement takes entertaining to the next level with a dedicated theater room, perfect for movie nights and game days. With 5 generously sized bedrooms and 4 full baths, there's space for everyone to spread out. Top-rated schools, resort-style swim and tennis amenities, and a vibrant community make Hamilton Mill an address people love to call home. A little personalization goes a long way here - and the savings are already built into the price

5. 2001-04-02
   soldstatus $251,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,453 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,453 · $538/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$6,453
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,375
• − Management: −$4,375
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$11,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dacula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #12728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 51,162
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 51,162
• Household income: $116,583
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 630.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.48%
• Current HPI: 212.925
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+118.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $550,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $550,000 GAMLS
• 2001-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $251,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,453 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.