229 N Carmichael Ave · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$99,999

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Land · 108 Days on market

Built 1969

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two Pre 1976 Manufactured homes on one Lot ''Melody'' 1973 which is currently RENTED out for 850 a month which is a 2 bed 2 bath and ''Victor'' a 1969 which is 2 bed 1 Bath which is currently vacant atm but was rented out for the past 6+ years at 600 a month

Key facts

• 7 parking spots
• Built 1969
• Listed 107 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.09%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,073
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -51.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 N 3rd St #7	0.26mi	—/—	—	7mo	$22,000	—	70
107 N Canyon Dr Unit -	0.27mi	—/—	—	12mo	$20,000	—	65
302 N 7th St #10671328	0.47mi	—/—	—	11mo	$30,000	—	57
203 N 4th St Unit -	0.33mi	—/—	—	22mo	$22,000	—	54
TBD Camino Mojado -- #36	0.65mi	—/—	—	22mo	$54,000	—	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-5,734
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $662
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $240	+0% $212	+5% $184	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $172	+0% $212	+5% $252	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $237	base $212	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 N Canyon Dr Unit 5 Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	450	$675	$1.50	44d	1	0.09mi
540 North Ave Unit A Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.25mi
557 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0	678	$900	$1.33	44d	1	0.28mi
604 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.31mi
600 Charles Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$1,589	$2.49	2d	15	0.37mi
380 Taylor Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$715	$1.43	2d	3	0.38mi
270 W Tacoma St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.40mi
250 Carroll Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$750	$1.34	44d	2	0.41mi
201 N Garden Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	645	$899	$1.39	44d	1	0.48mi
355 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$965	$1.61	2d	9	0.51mi
555 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$919	$1.76	44d	1	0.56mi
840 Fort Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	526	$675	$1.28	2d	2	0.56mi
1125 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$973	$0.97	3d	1	0.63mi
499 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0	1163	$1,675	$1.44	2d	5	0.64mi
420 Camino Mojado Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	44d	1	0.69mi
500 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0	1.0	520	$790	$1.52	2d	3	0.72mi
1205 Cottonwood Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.76mi
500 S 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	924	$999	$1.08	44d	1	0.84mi
800 N Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,070	$1.02	44d	1	0.98mi
800 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$965	$1.51	2d	16	1.07mi
409 S Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	793	$1,372	$1.73	44d	23	1.23mi
100 Golf Links Rd Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	574	$1,060	$1.85	2d	3	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,999 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $99,999 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Two Pre 1976 Manufactured homes on one Lot ''Melody'' 1973 which is currently RENTED out for 850 a month which is a 2 bed 2 bath and ''Victor'' a 1969 which is 2 bed 1 Bath which is currently vacant atm but was rented out for the past 6+ years at 600 a month

18. 2026-02-19
    listed $110,000 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Two Pre 1976 Manufactured homes on one Lot ''Melody'' 1973 which is currently RENTED out for 850 a month which is a 2 bed 2 bath and ''Victor'' a 1969 which is 2 bed 1 Bath which is currently vacant atm but was rented out for the past 6+ years at 600 a month

19. 2014-01-16
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 97.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $99,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.