206 20th St S · Haines City, FL 33844

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1993 9,875 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Haines City! This well-maintained property offers 1,053 sq ft of comfortable living space featuring tile flooring throughout for easy maintenance and a clean, modern feel. The home includes an attached 1-car garage with a convenient laundry area, adding both functionality and storage options. Enjoy outdoor living with a fully fenced yard—ideal for pets or entertaining. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for a great investment opportunity, this home checks all the boxes. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours—schedule your private showing today! The home is being sold in as is condition.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Laundry area
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LAUNDRY AREA
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Living area approximately 1,053 square feet
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-501/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (4.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $144k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,626 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-35,917
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-47,652
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,072/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $177,626

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $11	+0% $-42	+5% $-94	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-117	+0% $-42	+5% $34	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $5	base $-42	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Arlington Square Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	15d	1	0.56mi
1339 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,990	$1.37	22d	1	0.65mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	24d	1	0.91mi
325 N 5th St Unit 325-5 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$945	$1.26	15d	1	0.98mi
608 Claude Holmes SR Ave Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,350	$1.80	4d	1	1.04mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	3d	1	1.04mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916B Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.14mi
401 W Florida Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,649	$1.18	14d	2	1.19mi
1016 Avenue A Unit A Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,875	$1.46	15d	1	1.21mi
2117 Winger Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	24d	1	1.23mi
1205 Avenue I Unit I Haines City, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,340	$1.60	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   price $185,000
8. 2026-04-14
   listed $195,000 Active
9. 2019-08-05
   soldstatus $144,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,072 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,072 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$6,072
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $144,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,072 · +157.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.