6850 Downing Rd #25 · Medford, OR 97502

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Land public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1998 $85/sqft · 60% above area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic chance for first-time buyers! This manufactured home in an ''All Age Family'' park offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a convenient split floor plan. Relax on the covered deck, tend to the fenced raised garden beds, and take advantage of two storage sheds, indoor laundry, and a covered carport. Recent upgrades include a new heat pump in 2022 and a metal roof added in 2024.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1998
• Listed 115 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.15%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,072
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 60.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $42,813
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $118,193
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $914	-5% $889	+0% $863	+5% $838	+10% $812
Rent	-10% $722	-5% $793	+0% $863	+5% $934	+10% $1,004
Rate	-1.0pp $909	-0.5pp $886	base $863	+0.5pp $840	+1.0pp $816

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Wilson Rd Apt B Central Point, OR	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $104,900 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Fantastic chance for first-time buyers! This manufactured home in an ''All Age Family'' park offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a convenient split floor plan. Relax on the covered deck, tend to the fenced raised garden beds, and take advantage of two storage sheds, indoor laundry, and a covered carport. Recent upgrades include a new heat pump in 2022 and a metal roof added in 2024.

17. 2026-04-15
    price $114,900 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Fantastic chance for first-time buyers! This manufactured home in an ''All Age Family'' park offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a convenient split floor plan. Relax on the covered deck, tend to the fenced raised garden beds, and take advantage of two storage sheds, indoor laundry, and a covered carport. Recent upgrades include a new heat pump in 2022 and a metal roof added in 2024.

18. 2026-02-23
    listed $124,900 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Fantastic chance for first-time buyers! This manufactured home in an ''All Age Family'' park offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a convenient split floor plan. Relax on the covered deck, tend to the fenced raised garden beds, and take advantage of two storage sheds, indoor laundry, and a covered carport. Recent upgrades include a new heat pump in 2022 and a metal roof added in 2024.

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $124,900 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Fantastic chance for first-time buyers! This manufactured home in an ''All Age Family'' park offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a convenient split floor plan. Relax on the covered deck, tend to the fenced raised garden beds, and take advantage of two storage sheds, indoor laundry, and a covered carport. Recent upgrades include a new heat pump in 2022 and a metal roof added in 2024.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 100.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $9,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,265
• After-tax cash flow: $8,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $104,900 MLSCO
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $114,900 MLSCO
• 2026-02-23 Listed $124,900 MLSCO
• 2026-02-23 Listed $124,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $435 · +47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.