1270 E 51st Unit 4F · New York, NY 11234

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 257 Days on market

Built 1966

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING 2 BDRM, 1 BATH IN EXCELLENT CONDITION, LG MBD, EIK, LG LR DINING AREA, BLDG WELL KEPT, CLOSETS GALORE, OWNER MUST SELL RELOCATING

Key facts

• Built 1966
• Listed 257 days

Tags

• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $969 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.2%/yr); 460 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.78%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $45,112
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $190,530
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11234

• Rents YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 460
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $969

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $1,038	+0% $969	+5% $900	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $852	+0% $969	+5% $1,087	+10% $1,204
Rate	-1.0pp $1,070	-0.5pp $1,020	base $969	+0.5pp $917	+1.0pp $865

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1455 Royce St Unit 1H Brooklyn, NY	3.0	2.0	1113	$3,700	$3.32	25d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-08-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-14
   price $199,900
3. 2025-04-25
   price $229,900
4. 2025-04-10
   status Active
5. 2024-11-05
   status Pending
6. 2024-08-23
   price $239,900
7. 2024-07-19
   price $249,900
8. 2024-06-27
   listed $260,000 Active
9. 2006-10-25
   listed $189,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   CHARMING 2 BDRM, 1 BATH IN EXCELLENT CONDITION, LG MBD, EIK, LG LR DINING AREA, BLDG WELL KEPT, CLOSETS GALORE, OWNER MUST SELL RELOCATING

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,857
• − Management: −$2,857
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $8,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,156
• After-tax cash flow: $9,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 83,187
• Household income: $97,479
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2384.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -667.47%
• Current HPI: 318.0416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.21%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $229,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $239,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-27 Listed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-25 Listed $189,000 BNYMLS