400 W Baseline Rd #48 · Tempe, AZ 85283

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENDER OWNED! Clean, modern 3-bedroom, 2-bath 2016 Cavco manufactured home in a desirable Tempe location. Features an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. ALL AGES WELCOME! Community amenities galore, include a pool, spa, rec center and MORE! LEASED LAND COMMUNITY. Space rent is $809 per month.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Rec center
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• SPA
• REC CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $809 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa; Tennis courts; Playground; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aguilar School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #971 of 1,109 statewide, top 88%, 401 students, 64% FRL); Fees College Preparatory Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #164 of 218 statewide, top 76%, 789 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.93%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,880
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 W Baseline Rd #77	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+1%)	13mo	$95,000	$75	84
400 W Baseline Rd #281	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	3mo	$129,900	$98	83
400 W Baseline Rd #251	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	10mo	$52,000	$45	78
400 W Baseline Rd #72	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	17mo	$70,000	$58	76
400 W Baseline Rd #215	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	11mo	$138,000	$105	73
400 W Baseline Rd #308	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	14mo	$69,000	$60	67
400 W Baseline Rd #24	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-12%)	12mo	$55,000	$50	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $19,364
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,306
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85283

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,799	$2.14	1d	19	0.34mi
505 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,525	$1.77	1d	33	0.39mi
30 W Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	652	$1,635	$2.51	1d	28	0.39mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1119	$1,695	$1.51	22d	1	0.41mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,695	$1.56	18d	1	0.41mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,959	$1.81	1d	21	0.43mi
4130 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,399	$2.07	1d	61	0.46mi
517 W Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,150	$1.51	1d	1	0.47mi
208 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,399	$1.75	1d	20	0.54mi
530 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	881	$1,650	$1.87	1d	1	0.58mi
528 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,399	$1.75	10d	1	0.59mi
106 E Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,150	$1.45	24d	1	0.60mi
422 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 418 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	1d	1	0.61mi
418 W Pebble Beach Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	1d	1	0.61mi
3730 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	628	$1,487	$2.37	1d	28	0.62mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 513 Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	1d	1	0.62mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 515 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	1d	1	0.62mi
951 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,500	$2.53	1d	1	0.63mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	1d	1	0.67mi
1133 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,100	$2.19	1d	1	0.69mi
633 W Southern Ave #1147 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	10d	1	0.69mi
524 W Malibu Dr Unit 4 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,299	$1.73	1d	1	0.70mi
743 W Fordham Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	988	$1,695	$1.72	16d	1	0.71mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	1d	12	0.74mi
1145 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,425	$1.73	1d	10	0.75mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	1d	1	0.75mi
407 E Harvard Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,299	$1.81	24d	1	0.79mi
1311 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$1,519	$2.19	1d	25	0.83mi
1118 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,879	$2.30	1d	1	0.84mi
577 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,159	$2.09	1d	14	0.85mi
515 E Dunbar Dr Apt 10 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$1,550	$1.89	3d	1	0.85mi
515 E Dunbar Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$1,695	$2.07	1d	1	0.85mi
5105 S La Rosa Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	819	$1,495	$1.83	1d	1	0.90mi
1210 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0	910	$2,100	$2.31	1d	1	0.93mi
200 E Southern Ave Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$1,600	$2.05	1d	4	0.96mi
314 E Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	12d	1	0.97mi
15 W Geneva Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1260	$2,748	$2.18	1d	1	0.97mi
1222 W Auburn Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,200	$2.05	10d	1	0.98mi
1040 W Yale Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,575	$1.73	1d	1	0.98mi
427 E Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,895	$1.49	1d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-11
   listed $119,900 Active
2. 2025-11-03
   historical
3. 2025-06-13
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $6,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,649
• After-tax cash flow: $6,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 47,459
• Household income: $84,568
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2128.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.57%
• Current HPI: 328.638
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $120,000 ARMLS