5821 Orebank Rd · Orebank, TN 37664

$180,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1938 8,276 sqft lot $158/sqft · 8% above area Est $167k · 8% over ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Seller offering $5,000 toward concessions * Investor opportunity in Kingsport! This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers plenty of space and potential for the right buyer. Property needs some TLC and updates but could make a great investment, rental, or fixer-upper for someone looking to build equity. Convenient location close to shopping, dining, and local amenities. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss this opportunity to bring this property back to life!

Key facts

• Close to dining
• Convenient location
• Local amenities

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ketron Elementary School (math 16% / reading 19%, grade F, #704 of 952 statewide, top 74%, 563 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.64%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,865
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 7.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Mcfarland Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$178,000	$155	66
317 Archcrest St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (-9%)	5mo	$81,000	$78	60
417 Archcrest St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,225 (+8%)	13mo	$214,000	$175	52
429 Hooven St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+7%)	15mo	$175,250	$143	46
5705 Concord St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	986 (-14%)	2mo	$160,000	$162	45
312 Mcfarland Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	20mo	$182,000	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $652
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $42,848
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37664

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $498	+0% $447	+5% $396	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $371	+0% $447	+5% $523	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $493	base $447	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 McFarland Dr Kingsport, TN	3.0	1.0	897	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	0.29mi
131 Cooks Valley Rd Kingsport, TN	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,600	$1.59	15d	1	0.82mi
5013 Emerald Dr Kingsport, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	15d	1	0.98mi
893 New Beason Well Rd Kingsport, TN	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,188	$1.04	15d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $180,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    price $180,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Seller offering $5,000 toward concessions * Investor opportunity in Kingsport! This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers plenty of space and potential for the right buyer. Property needs some TLC and updates but could make a great investment, rental, or fixer-upper for someone looking to build equity. Convenient location close to shopping, dining, and local amenities. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss this opportunity to bring this property back to life!

18. 2026-03-08
    listed $182,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Seller offering $5,000 toward concessions * Investor opportunity in Kingsport! This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers plenty of space and potential for the right buyer. Property needs some TLC and updates but could make a great investment, rental, or fixer-upper for someone looking to build equity. Convenient location close to shopping, dining, and local amenities. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss this opportunity to bring this property back to life!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 99.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$606
• After-tax cash flow: $4,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Orebank

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orebank, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,267
• Household income: $63,653
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 739.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.12%
• Current HPI: 261.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $180,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $182,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.