9624 SE 163rd Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1971 9,583 sqft lot $201/sqft · 70% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

Key facts

• Renovated
• Walk to va
• Walk to gas

Tags

• RENOVATED
• WALK TO VA
• WALK TO PUBLIX
• WALK TO GAS
• WALK TO MORE SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $140k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.29%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,224
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 70.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16300 SE 95th Ct	0.14mi	2/1.0	672 (-3%)	10mo	$65,000	$97	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,731
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,929
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,222

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $211	+0% $171	+5% $132	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $115	+0% $171	+5% $228	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $207	base $171	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $139,900 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

18. 2026-04-24
    status Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

19. 2025-08-08
    status Pending 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

20. 2025-08-01
    historical 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

21. 2025-07-28
    listed $147,500 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    A MUST SEE This home has been renovated. Perfect for the extra company arriving for visit. Location walk to VA , Publix, Gas, More shopping.

22. 2011-08-31
    soldstatus $25,000
23. 1995-08-18
    soldstatus $4,500
24. 1994-06-24
    soldstatus $21,900
25. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus $21,900
26. 1973-06-01
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1116.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $147,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $4,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $21,900 Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,900 Public Records
• 1973-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.