20580 Bay Meadows Dr · Sonora, CA 95370

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1990 0.47 ac lot Est $342k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom 2 bath Manufactured with a 2-car detached garage. Sits on a large lot. 5 minutes to downtown shopping or dining.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Double-pane windows
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE ON ONE END

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces); 2 covered parking spaces; RV/boat parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Leased propane tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (main entry level)
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Built in 1990; Pillar/post/pier and concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Front yard; Side yard; Low maintenance landscaping; Corner lot; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including a primary bedroom suite on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dining area; Updated kitchen; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with hookups; 220-volt outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($501/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Sonora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#762 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Sonora Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #244 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,500 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20364 Nashua Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	3mo	$394,397	$323	80
20381 Nashua Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+12%)	3mo	$395,000	$283	65
10855 Robinwood Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-3%)	8mo	$479,900	$398	64
385 Arbona	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+9%)	8mo	$365,000	$268	60
20540 Deerfield Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,112 (-11%)	9mo	$330,000	$297	58
11216 Coopers	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,127 (-10%)	20mo	$360,000	$319	57
327 Calaveras Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+7%)	4mo	$235,000	$176	53
20101 Shawnee Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+15%)	9mo	$393,000	$274	51
731 Shaws Flt	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (-4%)	7mo	$325,000	$272	47
10786 Sierra Meadows Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,435 (+15%)	7mo	$390,000	$272	34
619 Shaws Flat Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+13%)	21mo	$352,000	$250	23
124 Tidwall St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	21mo	$250,000	$227	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-39,337
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,940
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,714/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $115	+0% $42	+5% $-32	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-45	+0% $42	+5% $128	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $108	base $42	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Shaws Flat Rd Unit B Sonora, CA	3.0	1.0	951	$2,195	$2.31	15d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $259,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 127 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-05-12
    price $269,000
21. 2026-04-28
    price $279,000
22. 2026-04-10
    price $289,000
23. 2026-03-19
    price $299,000
24. 2026-01-24
    listed $325,000 Active
25. 2025-08-02
    historical
26. 2025-04-25
    listed Active
27. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus $255,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom 2 bath Manufactured with a 2-car detached garage. Sits on a large lot. 5 minutes to downtown shopping or dining.

28. 2024-05-19
    listed $264,900 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom 2 bath Manufactured with a 2-car detached garage. Sits on a large lot. 5 minutes to downtown shopping or dining.

29. 2024-01-24
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$2,714
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$942
• After-tax cash flow: $1,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637230
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,134
• Composite: 33.06/100
• National rank: #5570
• State rank: #244 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sonora

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #762
• US rank: #22153

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $269,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $279,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $289,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-24 Listed $325,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-25 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-29 Sold (MLS) $255,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-05-19 Listed $264,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-01-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,714 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.