33075 Blue Bird Ln · Running Springs, CA 92382

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1968 4,417 sqft lot Est $283k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your mountain escape! Tucked away in the serene pines of the Arrowbear Lake community near Running Springs, 33075 Blue Bird Lane is the perfect cabin for anyone looking to break into mountain property ownership. This cabin sits on a double lot. Built in 1968, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath treehouse-style retreat packs incredible cozy appeal into an efficient 712-square-foot footprint. Large windows fill the intimate living space with natural sunlight and beautiful territorial views, making it an ideal, low-maintenance weekend getaway. This home is waiting for your personal touches. Location is outstanding, and this cabin hits the sweet spot. Situated perfectly between Lake Arrowhead and Big Bear, you are just minutes from Snow Valley Mountain Resort for skiing, hiking, and biking. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a piece of the San Bernardino Mountains without the stress of a massive estate, this affordable, classic sanctuary is ready to welcome you home to the mountain life.

Key facts

• Outstanding location
• Natural sunlight
• Skiing hiking biking

Tags

• ARROWBEAR LAKE COMMUNITY
• NATURAL SUNLIGHT
• OUTSTANDING LOCATION
• SKIING HIKING BIKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; No common walls
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Mountainous community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: House; 2 total stories; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Composition roof; Year built from assessor
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Lot is level/flat

Interior

• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Two levels; Main floor entry; Main level bedroom and bathroom; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Charles Hoffman Elementary (295 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $225k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,592 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33070 Falcon Ln	0.02mi	2/1.0	736 (+3%)	8mo	$309,000	$420	86
2313 Birch Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	720 (+1%)	6mo	$590,000	$819	86
2412 Ridge Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	736 (+3%)	8mo	$245,000	$333	86
32961 Squirrel	0.23mi	2/1.0	732 (+3%)	3mo	$305,000	$417	82
32703 Tulip Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0	704 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$405	75
32773 Evergreen	0.37mi	2/1.0	700 (-2%)	6mo	$255,500	$365	75
2474-2474 Fir	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (+5%)	3mo	$250,000	$333	74
32871 Cougar Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0	660 (-7%)	7mo	$246,900	$374	69
32876 Lone Pine Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	768 (+8%)	8mo	$284,000	$370	67
32905 Chipmunk Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0	608 (-15%)	3mo	$242,000	$398	61
32810 Deer Lick	0.38mi	1/1.5 (-1)	658 (-8%)	6mo	$295,000	$448	58
33355 Carlock Dr	0.44mi	2/1.5	816 (+15%)	9mo	$245,000	$300	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-31,052
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,382
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92382

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $150	+0% $87	+5% $23	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $16	+0% $87	+5% $158	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $144	base $87	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2418 Fir Dr Running Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	620	$1,650	$2.66	0d	1	0.21mi
2490 Fern Dr Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,849	$2.64	45d	1	0.21mi
32868 Deer Ln Running Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	650	$1,650	$2.54	25d	1	0.33mi
2620 Dade Dr Unit 2 Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	45d	1	1.13mi
32132 West Dr Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 143.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $1,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Running Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #11396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Running Springs, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $81,493
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 255.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.08%
• Current HPI: 341.4318
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+152.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $225,000 MRCAOR
• 2014-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.