14111 Grover Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32226

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1975 1.66 ac lot Est $143k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Living at its finest-yet close to everything! No HOA or CDD Fees, Sold ''As Is''. Repair this home, replace or build your dream home. Floors are stable in this home but please be careful of areas that are soft, mainly in the side floors close to the walls or corners, floor is soft and please do not walk in those areas, stay in the middle of the rooms. This beautiful 1.67-Acre property is located in the growing Oceanway area of N'Jacksonville , offering a peaceful rural setting with easy access to hospitals, doctors, restaurants, shopping, Entertainment, Beaches, Downtown Jacksonville, Jacksonville International Airport, and all major expressways throughout Northeast Florida.

Key facts

• 1.67-acre property
• 1.66 acre lot
• Built 1975

Tags

• 1.67-ACRE PROPERTY
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO HOSPITALS
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO ENTERTAINMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Berlin Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,200 students, 36% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 258 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.78%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,968
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14461 Denton Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (-13%)	2mo	$125,000	$111	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $8,973
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,743
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32226

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,604/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $630	+0% $587	+5% $545	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $505	+0% $587	+5% $670	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $663	-0.5pp $625	base $587	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14250 Tiki Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	16d	1	0.51mi
13658 Kayak Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,100	$1.23	13d	1	1.41mi
13319 Smithwick Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,131	$1.19	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-12
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2025-11-07
   soldstatus Closed
4. 2025-06-20
   status Pending
5. 2025-04-30
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,604 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,604 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,604
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $5,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,256
• Household income: $110,179
• Rent vs Own: 10.0% rent · 90.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 277.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.39%
• Current HPI: 266.9967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $150,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (MLS) — realMLS
• 2025-06-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $150,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,604 · +217.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.