25 Canary Hill Dr · Auburn Hills, MI 48359

$24,250

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 355 Days on market

Built 1974 4,356 sqft lot $20/sqft · at area comps Est $25k · at est. $733/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• New vanity
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW VANITY
• BASKETBALL COURT
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.3% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $168 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $728 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.

Recommended offer $21,340 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.68%
• DSCR: 7.04
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $24,525
• List price: $24,250
• Delta: -1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Eagle Vista Ln Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$17,000	$14	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.69×
• Total profit: $45,450
• Equity at exit: $3,616

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.39×
• Total profit: $104,499
• Equity at exit: $2,097

Cash invested: $6,790 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48359

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$733
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $24,250

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $776	+0% $768	+5% $759	+10% $751
Rent	-10% $601	-5% $684	+0% $768	+5% $851	+10% $935
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $774	base $768	+0.5pp $761	+1.0pp $755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,062
• Closing costs: $728
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 Heron Springs Blvd Orion Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1914	$2,095	$1.09	0d	5	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $733 · $8,796/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $24,250 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,250 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,250 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,250 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,250 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,250 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,250 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,250 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,250 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,250 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $24,250 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $24,250 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,250 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,250 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,250 Active 334 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    price $24,250 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

17. 2026-01-23
    price $24,250 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

18. 2026-01-08
    price $25,500 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

19. 2026-01-07
    price $25,500 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

20. 2025-09-04
    price $28,500 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

21. 2025-09-04
    price $28,500 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

22. 2025-08-05
    price $29,900 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

23. 2025-08-05
    price $29,900 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

24. 2025-07-01
    listed $30,000 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

25. 2025-07-01
    listed $30,000 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Welcome to Orion Lakes, a beautifully and professionally managed community. This 1,200sqft open concept Ranch home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. There's an update bathroom with new vanity and tile. All appliances in the home stay. Experience comfort and convenience at Orion Lakes, as it offers it's resident added amenities, including a basketball and volleyball court, playground, picnic area, and covered pavilion for community events! Located near Great Lakes Crossing for shopping and entertainment, and a short drive to Bad Brad's BBQ for dinner and The Bread & Yolk for breakfast! Don't miss your opportunity to own in a charming community. Buyers must be approved by the community. Pets are allowed- call Orion Lakes for details. Schedule your private showing today. Manufactured home loans accepted!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,358
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$121
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − HOA: −$8,796
• − Depreciation: −$705
• Taxable income: $9,942
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,386
• After-tax cash flow: $6,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pontiac City School District
• NCES district ID: 2628740
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,888
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9802
• State rank: #514 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 24,514
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,401
• Household income: $93,125
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.39%
• Current HPI: 168.0362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $24,250 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $24,250 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $25,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $25,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $28,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $28,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-01 Listed $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-01 Listed $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS