648 S 9th · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1940 7,508 sqft lot $223/sqft · 24% above area Est $192k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new Coastal Retreat! This property is being offered fully furnished to include all appliances. All you need to bring if your boat and fishing gear. If you have been thinking about starting an Air B N B, this would make a great one! Many recent updates including the windows, siding, flooring, plumbing, cabinetry and so much more. Central heat & air unit is only approx 3 years old. The yard is large enough to park your boat & R/V.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Large yard
• Fully furnished

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• RECENT UPDATES
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,940 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,950
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 4.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
958 S 10th St	0.30mi	3/1.0	897 (0%)	13mo	$118,900	$133	71
143 S 12th St	0.51mi	3/1.0	928 (+4%)	13mo	$110,000	$119	56
660 S Mccampbell St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+2%)	13mo	$199,000	$218	55
113 Pelican	0.63mi	3/2.0	978 (+9%)	7mo	$185,000	$189	50
1198 S Mccampbell St	0.72mi	3/1.0	896 (-0%)	15mo	$179,900	$201	50
110 Saunders	0.60mi	3/2.0	978 (+9%)	10mo	$205,000	$210	48
213 N 11th	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	902 (+1%)	17mo	$89,000	$99	48
227 S Rife	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-1%)	8mo	$115,000	$130	48
1009 Saunders St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-14%)	2mo	$155,000	$202	45
1312 Oak Park Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-1%)	19mo	$79,000	$89	41
1307 Oak Park Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-5%)	16mo	$104,900	$123	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-50,830
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-67,963
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,736

Max offer price $148,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-233	+0% $-290	+5% $-346	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-344	+0% $-290	+5% $-236	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-239	base $-290	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
818 S Arch St Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	616	$1,100	$1.79	22d	1	0.83mi
203 E Ransom Rd Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$1,145	$1.83	14d	5	1.12mi
633 N Commercial St Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	22d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $199,900 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Welcome to your new Coastal Retreat! This property is being offered fully furnished to include all appliances. All you need to bring if your boat and fishing gear. If you have been thinking about starting an Air B N B, this would make a great one! Many recent updates including the windows, siding, flooring, plumbing, cabinetry and so much more. Central heat & air unit is only approx 3 years old. The yard is large enough to park your boat & R/V.

18. 2026-04-28
    price $199,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Welcome to your new Coastal Retreat! This property is being offered fully furnished to include all appliances. All you need to bring if your boat and fishing gear. If you have been thinking about starting an Air B N B, this would make a great one! Many recent updates including the windows, siding, flooring, plumbing, cabinetry and so much more. Central heat & air unit is only approx 3 years old. The yard is large enough to park your boat & R/V.

19. 2026-02-19
    listed $210,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Welcome to your new Coastal Retreat! This property is being offered fully furnished to include all appliances. All you need to bring if your boat and fishing gear. If you have been thinking about starting an Air B N B, this would make a great one! Many recent updates including the windows, siding, flooring, plumbing, cabinetry and so much more. Central heat & air unit is only approx 3 years old. The yard is large enough to park your boat & R/V.

20. 2026-02-19
    listed $210,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Welcome to your new Coastal Retreat! This property is being offered fully furnished to include all appliances. All you need to bring if your boat and fishing gear. If you have been thinking about starting an Air B N B, this would make a great one! Many recent updates including the windows, siding, flooring, plumbing, cabinetry and so much more. Central heat & air unit is only approx 3 years old. The yard is large enough to park your boat & R/V.

21. 2025-07-08
    historical
22. 2025-06-04
    price $229,999
23. 2024-08-20
    price $230,000
24. 2024-07-08
    listed $240,000 New
25. 2022-11-28
    soldstatus
26. 2022-10-03
    status Pending
27. 2022-09-22
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2022-09-02
    price $119,000
29. 2022-08-14
    price $122,500
30. 2022-08-01
    price $128,500
31. 2022-07-15
    status Active
32. 2022-07-12
    historical Active Under Contract
33. 2022-06-24
    price $129,000
34. 2022-06-17
    price $136,000
35. 2022-06-09
    status Active
36. 2022-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2022-05-12
    status Active
38. 2022-05-11
    status Pending
39. 2022-05-06
    listed Active Under Contract
40. 2022-05-05
    listed $145,000
41. 2009-04-21
    soldstatus
42. 2009-01-21
    listed $32,000
43. 2007-04-12
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,880 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+524.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,900 RAAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,900 CBMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $210,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $210,000 RAAR
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $229,999 LERA
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $230,000 LERA
• 2024-07-08 Listed $240,000 LERA
• 2022-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-03 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-09-22 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $119,000 CBMLS
• 2022-08-14 Price Changed $122,500 CBMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $128,500 CBMLS
• 2022-07-15 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-07-12 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2022-06-24 Price Changed $129,000 CBMLS
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $136,000 CBMLS
• 2022-06-09 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-06-04 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2022-05-12 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-05-11 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed — CBMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $145,000 CBMLS
• 2009-04-21 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2009-01-21 Listed $32,000 CBMLS
• 2007-04-12 Listed $32,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,880 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.