4 Johnson Ave · Manchester, GA 31816

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1925 0.42 ac lot $60/sqft · 37% below area Est $111k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this home in the heart of Manchester featuring hardwood floors, soaring 91/2-foot ceilings throughout, and impressive 10-foot ceilings in the kitchen that create an open and airy feel, and a solid list of updates already in place. The roof is 6 years old, HVAC 9 years old, windows replaced just 2 years ago, and a newer hot water heater - giving the next owner real peace of mind. All electric for easy budgeting. Also included is a shop/outbuilding with its own roof, perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Shared driveway access via recorded easement. Priced to sell - schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer and water available
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential resale property; Built in 1925
• Construction: Wood siding; Other roof material
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.42 acres; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; One level; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 5.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary School (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #745 of 1,228 statewide, top 61%, 756 students, 99% FRL); Manchester Middle School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 313 students, 96% FRL); Manchester High School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #128 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 403 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.32%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,556
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Lee St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,168 (-0%)	22mo	$92,000	$79	64
19 Truitt St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,049 (-11%)	4mo	$60,000	$57	62
21 North St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+4%)	7mo	$36,000	$29	56
504 W Main St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,238 (+6%)	12mo	$117,500	$95	54
307 3rd Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-15%)	0mo	$78,000	$78	51
104 4th St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	10mo	$138,000	$103	45
526 4th Street Ext	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-7%)	10mo	$116,000	$106	42
518 S 5th Ave	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,121 (-4%)	18mo	$68,250	$61	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $84,240
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.81×
• Total profit: $211,845
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31816

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $593

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $70,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Check out this home in the heart of Manchester featuring hardwood floors, soaring 91/2-foot ceilings throughout, and impressive 10-foot ceilings in the kitchen that create an open and airy feel, and a solid list of updates already in place. The roof is 6 years old, HVAC 9 years old, windows replaced just 2 years ago, and a newer hot water heater - giving the next owner real peace of mind. All electric for easy budgeting. Also included is a shop/outbuilding with its own roof, perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Shared driveway access via recorded easement. Priced to sell - schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-05-15
    listed $70,000 New 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Check out this home in the heart of Manchester featuring hardwood floors, soaring 91/2-foot ceilings throughout, and impressive 10-foot ceilings in the kitchen that create an open and airy feel, and a solid list of updates already in place. The roof is 6 years old, HVAC 9 years old, windows replaced just 2 years ago, and a newer hot water heater - giving the next owner real peace of mind. All electric for easy budgeting. Also included is a shop/outbuilding with its own roof, perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Shared driveway access via recorded easement. Priced to sell - schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-05-13
    historical $70,000 616-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $8,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $6,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 48% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.75%
• Current HPI: 298.3716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — CBOR
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — CBOR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $70,000 CBOR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $70,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $70,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.