515 Umbra St · Baltimore, MD 21224

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,116 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1954 1,344 sqft lot $179/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LISTED AND SOLD AT THE SAME TIME

Key facts

• Built 1954
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (public)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Good property condition; Year built per assessor
• Construction: Brick and stick-built construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Street lights; Urban location in city limits; Roads paved with blacktop

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; Full finished basement with walkout stairs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,530
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -12.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Savage St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+1%)	2mo	$91,000	$81	89
621 Ponca St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,116 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$269	85
618 Umbra St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-8%)	0mo	$209,900	$205	82
4900 Fait Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,116 (0%)	6mo	$196,000	$176	80
319 S Newkirk St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-1%)	2mo	$114,000	$103	77
12 Kresson St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-2%)	2mo	$80,000	$73	59
634 Grundy St	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,168 (+5%)	3mo	$303,500	$260	51
632 S Macon St	0.40mi	3/3.0	1,275 (+14%)	4mo	$303,000	$238	48
316 Hornel St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-11%)	0mo	$140,000	$141	47
400 Imla St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+13%)	3mo	$155,000	$123	46
627 Grundy St	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,278 (+14%)	4mo	$435,000	$340	36
823 Grundy St	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+15%)	6mo	$399,900	$312	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,668
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,699
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21224

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,382/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $490	+0% $433	+5% $377	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $341	+0% $433	+5% $526	+10% $618
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $484	base $433	+0.5pp $381	+1.0pp $329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
708 Umbra St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1274	$2,000	$1.57	18d	1	0.08mi
560 Bayview Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1108	$3,372	$3.04	3d	25	0.08mi
611 Oldham St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	0.30mi
410 S Newkirk St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1330	$1,580	$1.19	44d	1	0.38mi
456 Elrino St Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	44d	1	0.39mi
527 S Lehigh St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,325	$1.76	44d	1	0.42mi
335 Drew St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1460	$1,600	$1.10	25d	1	0.43mi
4505 Foster Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,650	$1.93	25d	1	0.45mi
442 Folcroft St Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,600	$1.49	4d	1	0.45mi
434 Folcroft St Unit A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,500	$1.19	44d	1	0.45mi
1207 Anglesea St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1162	$2,150	$1.85	5d	1	0.48mi
328 Folcroft St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	25d	1	0.50mi
133 S Macon St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	18d	1	0.52mi
340 Gusryan St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	44d	1	0.53mi
338 Gusryan St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1218	$1,700	$1.40	25d	1	0.53mi
363 Gusryan St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	13d	1	0.54mi
416 Hornel St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,400	$0.95	25d	1	0.55mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	17d	1	0.67mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	25d	1	0.67mi
4015 Eastern Ave Unit 2L Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.69mi
611 Grundy St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,700	$1.88	25d	1	0.70mi
334 Kane St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	25d	1	0.71mi
3905 Bank St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0–3.0	909	$2,820	$3.10	3d	20	0.76mi
223 Grundy St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.77mi
3850 Boston St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$3,378	$3.96	3d	22	0.77mi
321 Fagley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	21d	1	0.79mi
1504 Elrino St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	5d	1	0.81mi
6710 Hudson St Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1156	$3,500	$3.03	25d	1	0.87mi
115 S Eaton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1393	$1,800	$1.29	17d	1	0.90mi
3610 Dillon St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$2,820	$3.41	44d	1	0.92mi
3710 E Pratt St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	0.93mi
3700 Toone St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$3,218	$2.94	2d	28	0.94mi
1613 Elrino St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	44d	1	0.97mi
3518 Elliott St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1036	$2,800	$2.70	18d	1	1.01mi
1200 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,933	$2.70	2d	16	1.02mi
6802 Conley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	939	$1,750	$1.86	23d	1	1.03mi
235 S Highland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1222	$2,000	$1.64	25d	1	1.04mi
400 S Highland Ave Unit 402 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	44d	1	1.04mi
3306 Fleet St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1308	$3,500	$2.68	44d	1	1.05mi
3436 Leverton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	25d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 991-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   historical 991-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $200,000 Active 991-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   historical $200,000 991-char remark
5. 2004-11-12
   soldstatus $65,000
6. 2004-10-25
   soldstatus $65,000 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   LISTED AND SOLD AT THE SAME TIME

7. 2004-09-14
   listed $65,000 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   LISTED AND SOLD AT THE SAME TIME

8. 2004-09-14
   historical 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   LISTED AND SOLD AT THE SAME TIME

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,382
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$520
• After-tax cash flow: $4,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $89,017
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1786.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.23%
• Current HPI: 241.284
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-25 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRIS
• 2004-09-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-09-14 Listed $65,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,382 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.