2615 Mchenry Landing Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$289,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,486 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2025 3,406 sqft lot Est $300k · at est. $113/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Hibiscus floor plan, a spacious two-story home that spans 1,483 square feet and includes a two-car garage. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, creating a welcoming and functional space for family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen features a large island that offers additional storage and seating, making it a perfect hub for meal preparation and casual dining. The Hibiscus floor plan offers the perfect balance of modern design, functional living spaces, and comfort, making it the ideal home for families. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make the Hibiscus your new home toda

Key facts

• 3,406 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 2615 McHenry Landing Ln, Houston TX 77051
• Financial info: List price $306,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Hibiscus plan
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory
• Exterior features: Spec-built home

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (1,483 finished square feet)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-498 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,049/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,942 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,172
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10316 Largent Hollow Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,486 (0%)	1mo	$306,990	$207	97
10208 Penryn Forest Trl	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,486 (0%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	91
10322 Penryn Forest Trl	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,486 (0%)	2mo	$304,990	$205	91
10318 Largent Hollow Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+7%)	1mo	$313,990	$198	85
2608 Afton Heights Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+7%)	1mo	$313,990	$198	85
2618 Afton Heights Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+7%)	1mo	$299,990	$189	84
2614 Afton Heights Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,384 (-7%)	1mo	$279,990	$202	84
2622 Afton Heights Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+7%)	2mo	$310,990	$196	84
10204 Penryn Forest Trl	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,384 (-7%)	1mo	$284,990	$206	80
10108 Penryn Forest Trl	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,384 (-7%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	78
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,384 (-7%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	77
9401 Kappa Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $130,032
• Equity at exit: $261,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $416,165
• Equity at exit: $563,387

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,680

Max offer price $217,928

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-298	-5% $-398	+0% $-498	+5% $-598	+10% $-698
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-579	+0% $-498	+5% $-417	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-424	base $-498	+0.5pp $-573	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	0.18mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.24mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	0.35mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.35mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.52mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.66mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	1d	3	0.66mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.84mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.88mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	5d	2	0.91mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	5d	12	1.01mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	45d	1	1.39mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,932	$1.36	20d	1	1.44mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	5d	1	1.44mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,515	$1.56	13d	1	1.44mi
10006 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,549	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi
9676 Knight Rd Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1481	$2,199	$1.48	45d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,651	$1.42	1d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,650	$1.42	13d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,661	$1.43	14d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,626	$1.40	9d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,661	$1.43	0d	1	1.46mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,626	$1.40	7d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$11,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,683
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B