922 W Gilbert Ave · Belen, NM 87002

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Other · 196 Days on market

Built 1950 5,227 sqft lot $81/sqft · 46% below area Est $224k · 46% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

Key facts

• Custom home
• Prime corner lot
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIME CORNER LOT
• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION
• CUSTOM HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,709
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -46.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,579
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $52,153
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,071/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $537	+0% $503	+5% $469	+10% $435
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $439	+0% $503	+5% $567	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $563	-0.5pp $534	base $503	+0.5pp $472	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Laura Ct Belen, NM	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	44d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $120,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

11. 2026-03-10
    status Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

12. 2026-03-05
    status Pending 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

13. 2026-03-01
    status Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

14. 2026-02-15
    status Pending 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

15. 2025-12-26
    price $120,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

16. 2025-12-18
    price $125,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

17. 2025-11-22
    price $135,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

18. 2025-10-19
    listed $140,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Prime Corner Lot: Unlimited Potential for Homebuyers and Savvy Investors! This single-family home presents an incredible chance to build equity in a great location. Its prominent corner lot status providing a spacious feel. While it requires significant renovation, the payoff is clear: think of custom home and long-term investment value.

19. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,071
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $4,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Belen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #14908

Category grades

Amenities C Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belen, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 21,265
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-15 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $120,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $125,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $135,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $140,000 Southwest MLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,071 · +25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.