5663 Rt-39 · Pike, NY 14427

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 9,148 sqft lot Est $150k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come and check out this well maintained 3 bed, 1 bath country home with new kitchen, floors, windows, roof, furnace. So many updates. Large living room with newer gas stove to get cozy on those cool nights! 3 large bedrooms, first floor laundry, detached garage. Letchworth School District.

Key facts

• New floors
• New furnace
• New kitchen

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-601/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,024 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Letchworth Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #318 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Letchworth Elementary School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 368 students, 44% FRL); Letchworth Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #363 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 278 students, 49% FRL); Letchworth Senior High School (math 95% / reading 75%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 269 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 29% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,675 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,294
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5663 Rt-39	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$111	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,354
• Equity at exit: $45,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,093
• Equity at exit: $59,450

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14427

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $131,158

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-10	+0% $-50	+5% $-90	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-98	+0% $-50	+5% $-2	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-14	base $-50	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,625 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,625 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Letchworth Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617130
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $48,908
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2457
• State rank: #318 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pike

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1024
• US rank: #19969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 110
• Population (ZIP): 1,875

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 256.065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,625 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.