Millstone Plan ON YOUR LOT Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$384,900

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,396 sqft · MultiFamily · 780 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered lanai
• Open-concept living

Tags

• MULTI-FAMILY DESIGN FEATURES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• EFFICIENT DESIGN ELEMENTS
• COVERED LANAI
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,396 sq ft
• Financial info: List price: $384,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Home design: Millstone plan (new construction)
• Construction: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Property located in Palm Coast, FL (Seagate Homes Model 51 East Diamond Dr area); Plan inventory (new construction plan to be built on buyer's lot)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Model home plan (Millstone Plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $384,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $507,952.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-207/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bunnell Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 1,080 students, 73% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1380 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,919/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1291% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 780 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 780 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $507,952
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Emerald Ln	0.48mi	6/4.0	2,624 (+10%)	23mo	$410,000	$156	43
26 Emerald Ln Unit A & B	0.59mi	6/4.0	2,692 (+12%)	13mo	$570,000	$212	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-115,689
• Equity at exit: $75,737

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-162,366
• Equity at exit: $43,918

Cash invested: $142,227 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1380
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,664
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$635 /mo · $7,619/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,443

Max offer price $447,997

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-239	+0% $-414	+5% $-590	+10% $-765
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-569	+0% $-414	+5% $-260	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-285	base $-414	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-680

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,920
Total (2 units)			$3,919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,988
• Closing costs: $15,239
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $384,900 Active 780 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 777 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 776 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 775 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 774 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $384,900 Active 772 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 771 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $384,900 Active 769 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 768 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $384,900 Active 767 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $384,900 Active 766 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,900 Active 762 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 761 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 760 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 759 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,453
• − Property taxes: −$7,619
• − Insurance: −$2,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,762
• − Management: −$3,762
• − Depreciation: −$14,777
• Taxable loss: −$13,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B