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10514 Watershed Dr
F Composite 33.94
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +9.1/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.5/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.8/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +0.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$309,900

10514 Watershed Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,963 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market
Built 2023 Good condition 6,459 sqft lot Garage $158/sqft · at area comps Est $322k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to 10514 Watershed Dr. , where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort. Meticulously maintained and loved by its current owner, this like-new home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an oversized flex space ideal for a formal dining room, office, or additional living area. The open-concept layout is perfect for entertaining, featuring abundant kitchen storage, expansive countertops, a large island, and modern appliances. An additional flex space just off the kitchen provides endless possibilities as a home office, playroom, hobby room, or pet retreat. The private primary suite offers a peaceful escape at the end of the day.

Key facts

  • Modern appliances
  • Large island
  • Open concept layout

Tags

OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUTABUNDANT KITCHEN STORAGEEXPANSIVE COUNTERTOPSLARGE ISLANDMODERN APPLIANCESPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (33.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (12.0% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $205k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $205,388 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.88%
Cap rate
4.26%
Cash-on-cash
-7.26%
DSCR
0.68
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$321,536
List price
$309,900
Delta
-3.62%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10835 Cliffs View Dr 0.39mi 3/2.0 1,865 (-5%) 1mo $250,000 $134 73
10514 Sutter Creek Dr 0.46mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,941 (-1%) 5mo $359,900 $185 68
10618 Sutter Creek Dr 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,872 (-5%) 5mo $408,900 $218 68
1815 Homewood Point Ln 0.43mi 3/2.5 1,841 (-6%) 1mo $369,990 $201 67
10842 Cliffs View Dr 0.42mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,067 (+5%) 0mo $343,900 $166 62
10906 Amador Peak Dr 0.52mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,878 (-4%) 2mo $329,990 $176 62
1214 Red Hills Dr 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,689 (-14%) 2mo $279,000 $165 61
10819 Amador Peak Dr 0.51mi 3/2.5 2,099 (+7%) 4mo $360,000 $172 59
1910 Temple Grove Dr 0.61mi 3/2.0 1,837 (-6%) 3mo $368,990 $201 58
1614 Diamond Mountain Dr 0.36mi 3/2.0 1,710 (-13%) 5mo $265,000 $155 58
10931 Amador Peak Dr 0.60mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,878 (-4%) 2mo $319,990 $170 58
10914 Amador Peak Dr 0.54mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,203 (+12%) 2mo $374,485 $170 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-34.5%
Equity multiple
-0.09×
Total profit
$-94,337
Equity at exit
$46,207
10-year hold
IRR
-71.0%
Equity multiple
-0.79×
Total profit
$-155,701
Equity at exit
$26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
61 active · 34 under contract
Months of supply
12.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$320,000 ($171/sqft)
Median days on market
84 d
This list price
34% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1736
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,728 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,625
Tax from tax record
$830 /mo · $9,962/yr
Insurance
$129
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$96
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$573
Net cashflow
$-592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,477
Max offer price $205,388
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-416 -5% $-504 +0% $-592 +5% $-679 +10% $-767
Rent -10% $-807 -5% $-699 +0% $-592 +5% $-484 +10% $-376
Rate -1.0pp $-436 -0.5pp $-513 base $-592 +0.5pp $-672 +1.0pp $-754

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$77,475
Closing costs
$9,297
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 33 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,700 $1.74 78d 1 0.15mi
10618 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 1980 $2,770 $1.40 4d 1 0.16mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1780 $2,775 $1.56 139d 1 0.17mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 1940 $2,654 $1.37 4d 1 0.17mi
10607 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,562 $1.59 4d 1 0.18mi
10638 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1628 $2,700 $1.66 38d 1 0.18mi
10642 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1625 $2,562 $1.58 4d 1 0.19mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2067 $3,450 $1.67 103d 1 0.19mi
1222 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,447 $1.58 70d 1 0.21mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,650 $1.71 70d 1 0.24mi
1233 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 1980 $2,770 $1.40 4d 1 0.24mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,650 $1.71 83d 1 0.25mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,725 $1.69 83d 1 0.28mi
1207 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 2070 $2,300 $1.11 82d 1 0.32mi
1202 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1804 $3,025 $1.68 8d 1 0.32mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 1804 $2,770 $1.54 0d 1 0.33mi
10522 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1522 $2,539 $1.67 0d 1 0.33mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1522 $2,539 $1.67 54d 1 0.33mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1596 $2,850 $1.79 116d 1 0.33mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX 4.0 3.5 2070 $2,700 $1.30 139d 1 0.35mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1802 $2,545 $1.41 139d 1 0.50mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1770 $2,412 $1.36 0d 16 0.59mi
9806 Steelknot Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1393 $1,400 $1.01 45d 1 0.81mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1751 $2,539 $1.45 0d 9 0.95mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1731 $2,469 $1.43 139d 7 0.95mi
10332 Ritter Run Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1641 $1,849 $1.13 19d 1 1.00mi
1214 Emerald Stone Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $1,980 $1.07 18d 1 1.00mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 4.0 2531 $2,850 $1.13 139d 1 1.02mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 3.0 1999 $2,600 $1.30 139d 1 1.03mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,000 $1.08 108d 1 1.10mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1593 $1,836 $1.15 68d 1 1.32mi
2107 Golden Topaz Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1393 $1,895 $1.36 5d 1 1.34mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX 3.0 2.5 1866 $2,051 $1.10 28d 1 1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Association-maintained pool
HOA & community
Part of Sierra Vista Owners AssociationAnnual association feeAssociation amenities include pool, playground, park, and picnic areaAssociation fee covers recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage2 garage spacesDrivewayGarage door opener
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertySingle-story (first-floor living)Built in 2023Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Brick and cement siding constructionBuilt in 2023Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioDeckPatioFenced backyardPond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first floor
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features
Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat

HOA detail $96/mo · $1,152/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,900 Active 109 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $309,900 Active 108 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $309,900 Active 107 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 106 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $309,900 Active 105 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $309,900 Active 104 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 103 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $309,900 Active 102 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    pricedays on market $309,900 Active 101 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $315,000 Active 100 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $315,000 Active 99 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 98 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $315,000 Active 97 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $315,000 Active 96 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 90 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 89 DOM
  17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 87 DOM
  18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 85 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $315,000 Active 83 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $315,000 Active 82 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $315,000 Active 81 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $315,000 Active 80 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $315,000 Active 79 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $319,000 Active 73 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $319,000 Active 72 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $319,000 Active 71 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $319,000 Active 70 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $319,000 Active 69 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $319,000 Active 68 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $319,000 Active 67 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $319,000 Active 66 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $319,000 Active 65 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $319,000 Active 64 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $319,000 Active 63 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $319,000 Active 62 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $319,000 Active 60 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $319,000 Active 59 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 58 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 57 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 54 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $319,000 Active 52 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $319,000 Active 51 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $319,000 Active 49 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $319,000 Active 47 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $319,000 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$9,962 · $830/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$9,962 · $830/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,738
− Mortgage interest
−$17,359
− Property taxes
−$9,962
− Insurance
−$2,347
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,619
− Management
−$2,619
− HOA
−$1,152
− Depreciation
−$9,015
Taxable loss
−$12,335
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,960
After-tax cash flow
$-4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home offers a spacious layout with modern amenities and a low-traffic street location.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
  • Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alvin ISD
NCES district ID
4808090
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$66,740
Composite
38.96/100
National rank
#4080
State rank
#255 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score
65/100
State rank
#701
US rank
#13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 420,414 people
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,414 people
By 2030
457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040
532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050
605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075
779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100
883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin
R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-3.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-07 Price Changed $319,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-07 Listed $329,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+79.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,962 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…