440 12th St NE · Paris, TX 75460

$109,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1963 0.46 ac lot Est $118k · 7% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully renovated home has been fully updated with permits, offering the peace of mind of new construction within an established neighborhood. Major improvements include a new foundation, upgraded 220 AMP electrical system, all new plumbing with a city-approved sewer line, a brand-new roof, and new window AC units. Inside, the home features a modern kitchen with new cabinets and countertops, along with two stylish bathrooms each with brand-new showers. Every major system has been redone, making this property a rare opportunity to own a house where all the big-ticket updates have already been taken care of.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New foundation
• Brand new roof

Tags

• NEW FOUNDATION
• NEW PLUMBING
• CITY APPROVED SEWER LINE
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOW AC UNITS
• MODERN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: City sewer; All-weather road access; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1963
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Built-in features; Butler's pantry
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.50%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Van Zandt St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	0mo	$174,500	$129	63
1745 E Cherry	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (+11%)	2mo	$195,000	$124	58
718 12th St SE	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	3mo	$65,000	$45	56
1511 Pine Bluff St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-8%)	20mo	$75,000	$58	56
1154 Fairfax	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (+7%)	14mo	$54,900	$36	55
351 NE 6th St NE	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,480 (+4%)	9mo	$90,000	$61	53
380 3rd St NE	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (-8%)	2mo	$28,000	$21	52
506 E Price St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,349 (-5%)	9mo	$205,000	$152	50
435 2nd St NE	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-8%)	10mo	$50,000	$38	42
993 Grove St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+13%)	14mo	$199,999	$125	41
216 20th St SE	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-9%)	14mo	$155,000	$120	37
1603 Neathery	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-12%)	13mo	$103,000	$83	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,473
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $38,968
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $425	+0% $394	+5% $363	+10% $332
Rent	-10% $278	-5% $336	+0% $394	+5% $452	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $422	base $394	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2246 Simpson St Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1508	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	0.92mi
370 29th St NE Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	45d	1	1.11mi
2121 Cedar St Paris, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	45d	1	1.12mi
635 7th St SW Paris, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,300	$1.44	45d	16	1.21mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $109,000
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2026-01-31
    historical
20. 2026-01-17
    price $133,999
21. 2025-09-03
    listed $162,999 Active
22. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus
23. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus
24. 2008-03-05
    soldstatus
25. 2002-01-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $3,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$767
• After-tax cash flow: $3,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $133,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $162,999 NTREIS
• 2022-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,860 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.