4421 Beacon Square Dr · Beacon Square, FL 34691

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1964 9,328 sqft lot Est $250k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Granite counter tops
• 9,328 sq ft lot

Tags

• ROOF IS ONLY 9 YEARS OLD
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water source: see remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of approximately 0.21 acres
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Shed(s) on the property; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Beacon Square — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $195k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,775 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4245 Crestfield Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,291 (-3%)	2mo	$228,000	$177	66
4214 Ridgefield Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-10%)	1mo	$240,000	$201	59
4251 Woodfield Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,507 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$129	54
2726 Featherstone Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	3mo	$181,000	$147	53
5052 Roanoke Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (+3%)	3mo	$191,500	$139	52
3524 Cheswick Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,258 (-6%)	2mo	$235,000	$187	51
4250 Pinefield Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+11%)	2mo	$290,000	$195	50
4711 Beacon Hill Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-8%)	1mo	$270,000	$221	47
3625 Windham Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$225,000	$188	47
4011 Grayton Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	0mo	$140,000	$117	45
2712 Apia Pl	0.58mi	2/3.0	1,484 (+11%)	2mo	$286,000	$193	45
5027 Manor Dr	0.75mi	2/1.5	1,134 (-15%)	0mo	$229,000	$202	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,070
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,462
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,387/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $264	+0% $209	+5% $153	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $137	+0% $209	+5% $280	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $258	base $209	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	18d	1	0.22mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	0.26mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	5d	1	0.26mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	5d	1	0.34mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.39mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	3d	9	0.48mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	5d	1	0.53mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	0.55mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	22d	1	0.57mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	24d	1	0.65mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	5d	1	0.66mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	5d	1	0.69mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	0.70mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	5d	1	0.72mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	0.73mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	0.73mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	18d	1	0.74mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	18d	1	0.74mi
4010 Stratfield Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,035	$1.19	5d	1	0.77mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.77mi
3445 Wiltshire Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,450	$1.46	22d	1	0.82mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.83mi
3612 Springfield Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,450	$1.39	18d	1	0.88mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.89mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	24d	1	0.92mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	0.94mi
2555 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.00mi
2555 Charlan Ct Unit Main Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,301	$1.39	24d	1	1.00mi
2578 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	24d	1	1.00mi
3431 Overland Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,850	$1.50	24d	1	1.02mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	24d	1	1.06mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	1.06mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	1.06mi
4211 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	5d	1	1.07mi
5223 Forum Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,990	$1.29	18d	1	1.08mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	24d	1	1.10mi
4411 Rustic Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	1.11mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	13d	1	1.14mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	5d	1	1.14mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2020-01-31
   soldstatus $124,000
4. 2019-12-12
   status Pending
5. 2019-12-12
   price $129,900
6. 2019-12-05
   price $124,900
7. 2019-11-30
   listed $130,000 Active
8. 2017-03-29
   soldstatus $92,500
9. 2017-03-28
   soldstatus $92,500 Sold 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

10. 2017-02-06
    status Pending 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

11. 2017-02-02
    price $87,500 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

12. 2017-01-24
    price $85,500 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

13. 2017-01-20
    price $99,500 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

14. 2017-01-13
    listed $105,000 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    BRAND NEW APPLIANCES! MASSIVE PRICE DROP! READY TO CLOSE! Not a Short Sale Not an REO- Easy Seller is READY TO CLOSE!! Sharply Updated House. Great Back Yard! Many NEW updates! Great Location with Easy Access to US -19 Come see for yourself. Seller is Not Represented - Buyer is responsible for verifying all information which is important to their purchasing decisions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,387 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,387
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$177
• After-tax cash flow: $2,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Beacon Square

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beacon Square, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+85.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-12 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-05 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-30 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2017-03-28 Sold (MLS) $92,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-02 Price Changed $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-24 Price Changed $85,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-20 Price Changed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-13 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,387 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.