1604 Cabo Dr · Riverbank, CA 95357

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition 7.85 ac lot Est $118k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Morningside! Come get 3 months free Rent, rents are $1,100.00 per month!!! Discover comfort, convenience, and a vibrant senior lifestyle in this spacious updated 1,440 sq. ft. manufactured home (2 bed, 2 full bath) located in Modesto's premier 55+ Morningside Mobile Home Park. Completely vacant and ready for immediate possession at close of escrow! HOME HIGHLIGHTS: Updated! Spacious Living: Open-concept layout featuring modern luxury vinyl plank flooring, central heating/air, and ceiling fans. Kitchen & Baths: Well-appointed kitchen with new counters and dedicated dining space. Bathrooms include both a tub and separate shower stall. Energy Efficient: Full dual-pane win

Key facts

• New counters
• Central heating air
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL HEATING AIR
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERS
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• FULL DUAL-PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.0% in Riverbank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#757 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.43%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,080
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1613 Cabo Dr #9	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$118,000	$82	86
4812 Mahi Mahi Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,358 (-6%)	6mo	$100,000	$74	82
4808 Mahi Mahi Dr #35	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	5mo	$120,000	$77	74
1532 Sailfish Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-6%)	16mo	$130,000	$96	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,155
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $78,234
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $800	-5% $753	+0% $707	+5% $660	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $543	-5% $625	+0% $707	+5% $789	+10% $870
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $741	base $707	+0.5pp $672	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	22d	1	1.05mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	1.30mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $6,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $6,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home has a fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed, particularly on the exterior. Painting and repairing the siding will significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear visible on the exterior siding.
• Major exterior paint — The paint appears chipped and peeling in several areas, indicating significant wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace damaged siding — Replacements will improve the structural integrity and aesthetic appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear visible on the exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · The paint appears chipped and peeling in several areas, indicating significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace damaged siding — Replacements will improve the structural integrity and aesthetic appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverbank

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #22107

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,593
• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com