33239 Opal Glass Dr · French Valley, CA 92596

$479,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,843 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 $455/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

What's Special: Close to Park | Loft | Large Kitchen Island | South Facing Lot. New Construction – September Completion! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Plan 3 at 33239 Opal Glass Drive in Oliva at Siena! Step in from the inviting courtyard into a bright, open main level where the kitchen, dining, and great room come together in a warm and effortless flow. The spacious kitchen with a central island and nearby pantry makes everyday moments feel easy and welcoming, while natural light fills the heart of the home. A convenient powder bath and oversized two car garage add thoughtful functionality. Upstairs, the serene primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Loft
• New construction

Tags

• LOFT
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• SOUTH FACING LOT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community of 529 units
• Financial info: Mello-Roos assessments
• HOA & community: Part of an association (Siena Master Association); Association amenities include pool and spa; Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Total 2 parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Multi-family structure; Attached property with one common wall; Faces south; Under construction; Two stories; Has a view; Plan built by Taylor Morrison (Plan 3)
• Construction: Builder-provided year built; Built by Taylor Morrison
• Exterior features: Open patio; Community pool; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Electric range; Electric oven; Eating area in kitchen
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located upstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Bathroom(s) with closet
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings (9 feet+); Open floor plan; Entry on ground level; Two levels; Main level has a bathroom; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry with electric dryer hookup; Has laundry

🏗️ New construction. The $479,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $490,238.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-956 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,921 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $490,238
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34561 Ciruela Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,843 (0%)	2mo	$488,680	$265	94
34525 Ciruela Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,847 (+0%)	4mo	$454,990	$246	92
34531 Ciruela Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,843 (0%)	3mo	$454,990	$247	90
34489 Ciruela Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,843 (0%)	9mo	$454,990	$247	88
34453 Ciruela Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,843 (0%)	11mo	$513,525	$279	86
34423 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,843 (0%)	13mo	$464,990	$252	78
34549 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-13%)	9mo	$425,370	$266	60
34477 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-13%)	10mo	$434,990	$272	59
34429 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-13%)	10mo	$479,090	$299	59
34465 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-13%)	12mo	$429,990	$269	57
34441 Ciruela Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-13%)	13mo	$449,710	$281	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $195,741
• Equity at exit: $441,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $605,790
• Equity at exit: $952,425

Cash invested: $137,267 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$613 /mo · $7,354/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,864

Max offer price $351,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-617	-5% $-786	+0% $-956	+5% $-1,125	+10% $-1,295
Rent	-10% $-1,245	-5% $-1,100	+0% $-956	+5% $-812	+10% $-667
Rate	-1.0pp $-709	-0.5pp $-831	base $-956	+0.5pp $-1,083	+1.0pp $-1,212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,560
• Closing costs: $14,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	0d	1	0.24mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	45d	1	0.36mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	12d	1	1.06mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	19d	1	1.06mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	26d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $479,990 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $479,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,461
• − Property taxes: −$7,354
• − Insurance: −$2,451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,508
• − Management: −$3,508
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$14,261
• Taxable loss: −$20,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,836
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $479,990 CRMLS