6473 Peppertree Path NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$146,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1987 5,271 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept and partially furnished on resident owned lot. No lot rent. Large open floor plan with newer wood floors in living room, hallway and dining room. All appliances stay. Inside laundry room. Built in breakfast bar. Great view from the dining room and living room. 12ft x 10 ft screened porch. 2 car carport. Utility shed. Gutters and downspouts. This is a NO PET lot. LOW HOA fees of $25.00 a month. Amenities in Brookhaven include clubhouse, large heated pool and shuffleboard. RV lot in park for your motor home or RV. Golf carts are allowed. Shopping, malls, churches, and doctors nearby. Close commute to I-4 and Disney, Epcot, Orlando and Tampa Airports and Florida beaches.

Key facts

• 5,271 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Living area approximately 1,107 sq ft; Lot roughly 0.12 acres (approx. 60 x 87)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with required approval; Monthly HOA $34 (annual $408); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; fence restrictions apply; Senior community; pets not allowed; golf carts allowed; special community restrictions; association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Deed restrictions and community rules (buyer approval required)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace with pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio (screened); Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Storage and shed(s); Irrigation equipment; Level, paved lot in city limits; Asphalt road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Aluminum window frames; Blinds and window treatments; Inside utility / additional inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Inside laundry; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $146k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,240 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.75%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,012
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,690
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,847/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $373	+0% $332	+5% $291	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $265	+0% $332	+5% $399	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $369	base $332	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $146,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $146,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $146,000 Active
16. 2016-12-27
    soldstatus $53,500
17. 2016-12-22
    soldstatus $53,500 Sold 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Well kept and partially furnished on resident owned lot. No lot rent. Large open floor plan with newer wood floors in living room, hallway and dining room. All appliances stay. Inside laundry room. Built in breakfast bar. Great view from the dining room and living room. 12ft x 10 ft screened porch. 2 car carport. Utility shed. Gutters and downspouts. This is a NO PET lot. LOW HOA fees of $25.00 a month. Amenities in Brookhaven include clubhouse, large heated pool and shuffleboard. RV lot in park for your motor home or RV. Golf carts are allowed. Shopping, malls, churches, and doctors nearby. Close commute to I-4 and Disney, Epcot, Orlando and Tampa Airports and Florida beaches.

18. 2016-12-15
    status Pending 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Well kept and partially furnished on resident owned lot. No lot rent. Large open floor plan with newer wood floors in living room, hallway and dining room. All appliances stay. Inside laundry room. Built in breakfast bar. Great view from the dining room and living room. 12ft x 10 ft screened porch. 2 car carport. Utility shed. Gutters and downspouts. This is a NO PET lot. LOW HOA fees of $25.00 a month. Amenities in Brookhaven include clubhouse, large heated pool and shuffleboard. RV lot in park for your motor home or RV. Golf carts are allowed. Shopping, malls, churches, and doctors nearby. Close commute to I-4 and Disney, Epcot, Orlando and Tampa Airports and Florida beaches.

19. 2016-09-03
    listed $60,900 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Well kept and partially furnished on resident owned lot. No lot rent. Large open floor plan with newer wood floors in living room, hallway and dining room. All appliances stay. Inside laundry room. Built in breakfast bar. Great view from the dining room and living room. 12ft x 10 ft screened porch. 2 car carport. Utility shed. Gutters and downspouts. This is a NO PET lot. LOW HOA fees of $25.00 a month. Amenities in Brookhaven include clubhouse, large heated pool and shuffleboard. RV lot in park for your motor home or RV. Golf carts are allowed. Shopping, malls, churches, and doctors nearby. Close commute to I-4 and Disney, Epcot, Orlando and Tampa Airports and Florida beaches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$1,847
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $1,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $3,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+139.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $146,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2016-12-22 Sold (MLS) $53,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-03 Listed $60,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,847 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.