1105 Mary Ashby Way · Hopewell, NJ 08534

$419,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Townhouse · 151 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,308 ac lot $355/sqft · at area comps Est $440k · at est. $352/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level condominium features an open-concept floorplan that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space. A nearby balcony offers seamless outdoor entertainment leisure. A secondary bedrooms at the front of the home is steps from a full-sized bathroom, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Private balcony
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.5% in Hopewell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#125 in NJ, #3,403 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $259,853 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.29%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,990
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -4.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2207 Prince Hall Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-2%)	5mo	$379,990	$329	89
2106 Prince Hall Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-2%)	6mo	$379,750	$329	89
2303 Prince Hall Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	4mo	$428,790	$338	83
2202 Prince Hall Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	6mo	$422,150	$333	81
2101 Prince Hall Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	6mo	$441,790	$348	80
172 Leona Stewart Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (+10%)	1mo	$430,815	$330	76
173 Leona Stewart Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	1mo	$439,990	$333	72
169 Leona Stewart Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	1mo	$441,615	$334	72
165 Leona Stewart Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	1mo	$433,765	$328	72
176 Leona Stewart Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	3mo	$438,000	$331	71
168 Leona Stewart Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	4mo	$439,999	$333	71
158 Leona Stewart Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	5mo	$469,990	$355	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-146,251
• Equity at exit: $62,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -92.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-247,858
• Equity at exit: $36,313

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $442,990 ($357/sqft)
• Median days on market: 396 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08534

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$352
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-1,107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,120

Max offer price $259,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-816	-5% $-962	+0% $-1,107	+5% $-1,252	+10% $-1,397
Rent	-10% $-1,321	-5% $-1,214	+0% $-1,107	+5% $-999	+10% $-892
Rate	-1.0pp $-895	-0.5pp $-1,000	base $-1,107	+0.5pp $-1,215	+1.0pp $-1,326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5202 Mary Ashby Way Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	162d	1	0.07mi
180 Leona Stewart Ln Hopewell Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1323	$2,900	$2.19	10d	1	0.13mi
161 Leona Stewart Ln Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,850	$2.19	10d	1	0.15mi
161 Leona Stewart Ln Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,850	$2.19	33d	1	0.15mi
169 Leona Stewart Ln Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1323	$2,750	$2.08	2d	1	0.15mi
39 Diverty Rd Pennington, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	51d	1	0.22mi
25 Diverty Rd Pennington, NJ	2.0	1.0	1370	$2,400	$1.75	162d	1	0.24mi
725 Denow Rd Pennington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	747	$1,549	$2.07	10d	1	0.77mi
1 Samuel Peterson Dr Ewing Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$3,650	$3.24	0d	18	1.22mi
201 Lewis Fisher Dr Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1347	$2,800	$2.08	154d	1	1.28mi
2306 Prince Hall DR Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,550	$2.21	5d	1	1.30mi
233 Lewis Fisher Dr Unit St Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1347	$2,950	$2.19	10d	1	1.35mi
328 Cora Bergen Blvd Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,950	$2.26	0d	1	1.40mi
4201 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,800	$2.37	1d	1	1.42mi
2203 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$3,000	$2.37	154d	1	1.42mi
2207 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,800	$2.21	154d	1	1.42mi
2307 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,700	$2.13	20d	1	1.42mi
2201 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,700	$2.13	12d	1	1.43mi
2201 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,700	$2.28	24d	1	1.43mi
2201 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,700	$2.13	0d	1	1.43mi
2301 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,595	$2.20	0d	1	1.43mi
2301 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,595	$2.20	1d	1	1.43mi
1 Phillips Blvd Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $352HOA covers common area maintenance and managementCommunity amenities include common grounds, paths, and playgrounds

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (assumed)Energy-efficient double-pane windows
• Home design: Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Unit/flatEntry on level 1Fee simple ownershipProperty in excellent condition
• Construction: Estimated year builtVinyl siding and brick exteriorArchitectural shingle roofAbove-grade and below-grade structuresUnit built by LennarConstruction not completed
• Exterior features: Community poolCommon groundsJog/walk pathTot lots/playgroundBlack top road surfaceDoors swing in (accessibility)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveGas oven/rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (natural gas)Instant hot water
• Interior features: Open floor planRecessed lightingFamily room off kitchenMaster bath(s)Walk-in closet(s)Sliding glass door(s)Dry wall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitWasher/dryer hookups in unit

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $419,990 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $419,990 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $419,990 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $419,990 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $419,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $419,990 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $419,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $419,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $419,990 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $419,990 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $419,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $419,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $419,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $419,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $419,990 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $419,990 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $419,990 Active 133 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $419,990 Active 132 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $419,990 Active 131 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $419,990 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $419,990 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $419,990 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $419,990 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $419,990 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $419,990 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $419,990 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $419,990 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $419,990 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $419,990 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $419,990 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $419,990 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $419,990 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $419,990 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $419,990 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $419,990 Active 114 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $419,990 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $419,990 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $419,990 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    pricedays on market $419,990 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $425,990 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $425,990 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $425,990 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $425,990 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $425,990 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $425,990 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $425,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $425,990 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $425,990 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − HOA: −$4,224
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$20,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,031
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level condominium is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bear Tavern Elementary School F NJ #422/1,303 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Timberlane Middle School B- NJ #68/431 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Hopewell Valley Central High School C NJ #67/399 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #3403

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 13,272
• Household income: $175,573
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
• Current HPI: 234.5759
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $352HOA covers common area maintenance and managementCommunity amenities include common grounds, paths, and playgrounds

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (assumed)Energy-efficient double-pane windows
• Home design: Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Unit/flatEntry on level 1Fee simple ownershipProperty in excellent condition
• Construction: Estimated year builtVinyl siding and brick exteriorArchitectural shingle roofAbove-grade and below-grade structuresUnit built by LennarConstruction not completed
• Exterior features: Community poolCommon groundsJog/walk pathTot lots/playgroundBlack top road surfaceDoors swing in (accessibility)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveGas oven/rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (natural gas)Instant hot water
• Interior features: Open floor planRecessed lightingFamily room off kitchenMaster bath(s)Walk-in closet(s)Sliding glass door(s)Dry wall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitWasher/dryer hookups in unit

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $438,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $438,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-23 Listed $419,990 Zillow