1210 NE 1st St · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 759 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1969 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring the fishing gear and a companion to enjoy this wonderfully remodeled mobile home with two bedrooms and one bathroom situated in the heart of a quiet fishing town. You will have plenty of room for boat on this double lot, privacy fence installed in the bag yard, and a large metal shed for all your personal belongings. Be advised owner has two other mobile homes available for purchase, will be listed at the completion of their long term rental agreements. All measurements were taken from Franklin County PA and should be verified if important. This property is currently occupied by a month to month tenant. Please call to schedule all showings and do not disturb tenants.

Key facts

• Large metal shed
• Double lot
• Privacy fence

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• DOUBLE LOT
• PRIVACY FENCE
• LARGE METAL SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); New construction; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Cleared lot; City street frontage; On-site storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Pantry; Recessed lighting

🏗️ New construction. The $95,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $98,670.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $682 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $95k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.05%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,670
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1209 NW 2nd St	0.22mi	2/2.0	840 (+11%)	4mo	$78,500	$93	64
1012 Tallahassee St	0.18mi	2/1.0	845 (+11%)	14mo	$55,000	$65	61
505 NW 1st St	0.61mi	2/1.0	728 (-4%)	10mo	$95,000	$130	56
701 W 6th St	0.64mi	2/1.5	720 (-5%)	15mo	$115,000	$160	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,054
• Equity at exit: $14,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $81,071
• Equity at exit: $8,531

Cash invested: $27,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $98,670

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,668
• Closing costs: $2,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $95,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
19. 2026-03-11
    price $99,000
20. 2026-03-07
    price $104,000
21. 2026-02-25
    price $109,000
22. 2026-02-04
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 2019-04-25
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,527
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$2,870
• Taxable income: $7,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $6,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrabelle, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+167.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $99,000 RAFGC
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $104,000 RAFGC
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $109,000 RAFGC
• 2026-02-04 Listed $115,000 RAFGC
• 2019-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.