2651 S Juniper St #1201 · Foley, AL 36535

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Condo public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2007 $160/sqft · 25% below area Est $252k · 25% under $375/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Foley, where convenience meets comfort and your weekends stay yours. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Victoria Place offers a smart, open layout designed for real life. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a fully equipped kitchen, making it easy to host, relax, or simply enjoy a quiet night in. With 1,185 square feet, there’s just the right amount of space without the upkeep of a larger home. Fresh interior paint gives the unit a clean, updated feel, adding to its move-in-ready appeal. The primary suite features a double vanity and tub/shower combo, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A dedicated laundry room and attached single-car garage add the everyday functionality buyers are looking for. Major exterior updates, including a new roof and siding in 2021, bring added confidence, while the HOA handles the heavy lifting: lawn care, exterior maintenance, building insurance, termite bond, trash, and more. That means less worry and more time to enjoy life. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, OWA entertainment, and Foley’s recreation facilities, this property puts you right where you want to be. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance primary residence, a second home, or a long-term investment with 90+ day rentals allowed, this is a smart, affordable entry into Baldwin County living. Clean, freshly painted, updated, and easy to own, this one checks the boxes. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New siding
• New roof

Tags

• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• HOA COVERS LAWN MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($291/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,321
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -24.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,431
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,140
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2651 S Juniper St Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,925	$1.53	44d	2	0.09mi
2651 S Juniper St Foley, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1267	$2,200	$1.74	21d	3	0.09mi
458 Riviera Blvd Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$1,779	$1.58	13d	13	0.28mi
9815 James Rd Foley, AL	2.0–3.0	3.0	1350	$1,899	$1.41	21d	1	0.73mi
2800 Browning Way Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,799	$1.90	13d	37	0.90mi
300 E Lawson Ave Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,510	$1.43	13d	1	0.93mi
679 E Michigan Ave Foley, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,500	$1.57	44d	4	1.10mi
3293 Straz Cir Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,240	$1.98	13d	47	1.18mi
431 Hamilton Blvd Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,695	$1.25	21d	1	1.35mi
502 Meadow Ln Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	44d	1	1.40mi
19364 Chelsey Dr Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,549	$1.14	21d	1	1.44mi
19362 Chelsey Dr Foley, AL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,375	$1.25	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: trashlandscapingexterior maint.insurance
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $190,000 1562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1562 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Foley, where convenience meets comfort and your weekends stay yours. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Victoria Place offers a smart, open layout designed for real life. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a fully equipped kitchen, making it easy to host, relax, or simply enjoy a quiet night in. With 1,185 square feet, there’s just the right amount of space without the upkeep of a larger home. Fresh interior paint gives the unit a clean, updated feel, adding to its move-in-ready appeal. The primary suite features a double vanity and tub/shower combo, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A dedicated laundry room and attached single-car garage add the everyday functionality buyers are looking for. Major exterior updates, including a new roof and siding in 2021, bring added confidence, while the HOA handles the heavy lifting: lawn care, exterior maintenance, building insurance, termite bond, trash, and more. That means less worry and more time to enjoy life. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, OWA entertainment, and Foley’s recreation facilities, this property puts you right where you want to be. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance primary residence, a second home, or a long-term investment with 90+ day rentals allowed, this is a smart, affordable entry into Baldwin County living. Clean, freshly painted, updated, and easy to own, this one checks the boxes. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

18. 2026-02-09
    price $183,000 1562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1562 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Foley, where convenience meets comfort and your weekends stay yours. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Victoria Place offers a smart, open layout designed for real life. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a fully equipped kitchen, making it easy to host, relax, or simply enjoy a quiet night in. With 1,185 square feet, there’s just the right amount of space without the upkeep of a larger home. Fresh interior paint gives the unit a clean, updated feel, adding to its move-in-ready appeal. The primary suite features a double vanity and tub/shower combo, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A dedicated laundry room and attached single-car garage add the everyday functionality buyers are looking for. Major exterior updates, including a new roof and siding in 2021, bring added confidence, while the HOA handles the heavy lifting: lawn care, exterior maintenance, building insurance, termite bond, trash, and more. That means less worry and more time to enjoy life. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, OWA entertainment, and Foley’s recreation facilities, this property puts you right where you want to be. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance primary residence, a second home, or a long-term investment with 90+ day rentals allowed, this is a smart, affordable entry into Baldwin County living. Clean, freshly painted, updated, and easy to own, this one checks the boxes. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2025-11-26
    price $193,000 1562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1562 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Foley, where convenience meets comfort and your weekends stay yours. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Victoria Place offers a smart, open layout designed for real life. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a fully equipped kitchen, making it easy to host, relax, or simply enjoy a quiet night in. With 1,185 square feet, there’s just the right amount of space without the upkeep of a larger home. Fresh interior paint gives the unit a clean, updated feel, adding to its move-in-ready appeal. The primary suite features a double vanity and tub/shower combo, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A dedicated laundry room and attached single-car garage add the everyday functionality buyers are looking for. Major exterior updates, including a new roof and siding in 2021, bring added confidence, while the HOA handles the heavy lifting: lawn care, exterior maintenance, building insurance, termite bond, trash, and more. That means less worry and more time to enjoy life. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, OWA entertainment, and Foley’s recreation facilities, this property puts you right where you want to be. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance primary residence, a second home, or a long-term investment with 90+ day rentals allowed, this is a smart, affordable entry into Baldwin County living. Clean, freshly painted, updated, and easy to own, this one checks the boxes. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2025-10-28
    listed $195,000 Active 1562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1562 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Foley, where convenience meets comfort and your weekends stay yours. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Victoria Place offers a smart, open layout designed for real life. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a fully equipped kitchen, making it easy to host, relax, or simply enjoy a quiet night in. With 1,185 square feet, there’s just the right amount of space without the upkeep of a larger home. Fresh interior paint gives the unit a clean, updated feel, adding to its move-in-ready appeal. The primary suite features a double vanity and tub/shower combo, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A dedicated laundry room and attached single-car garage add the everyday functionality buyers are looking for. Major exterior updates, including a new roof and siding in 2021, bring added confidence, while the HOA handles the heavy lifting: lawn care, exterior maintenance, building insurance, termite bond, trash, and more. That means less worry and more time to enjoy life. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, OWA entertainment, and Foley’s recreation facilities, this property puts you right where you want to be. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance primary residence, a second home, or a long-term investment with 90+ day rentals allowed, this is a smart, affordable entry into Baldwin County living. Clean, freshly painted, updated, and easy to own, this one checks the boxes. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2025-08-29
    price $195,000
22. 2025-08-16
    historical $1,500
23. 2025-07-16
    listed $1,500
24. 2025-07-15
    price $199,000
25. 2024-10-28
    listed $204,000 Active
26. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus $252,125
27. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $137,500
28. 2018-06-07
    listed $139,900
29. 2018-01-17
    listed $142,000
30. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus $98,100
31. 2016-06-02
    soldstatus $98,000
32. 2016-04-08
    listed $99,900
33. 2010-10-07
    soldstatus $63,000
34. 2009-11-30
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$653
• After-tax cash flow: $944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Foley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+171.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $190,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $183,000 BCAR
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $193,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $195,000 BCAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $195,000 BCAR
• 2025-08-16 Rental Removed $1,500 Avail
• 2025-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 Avail
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $199,000 BCAR
• 2024-10-28 Listed $204,000 BCAR
• 2018-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $252,125 Public Records
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $137,500 BCAR
• 2018-06-07 Listed $139,900 BCAR
• 2018-01-17 Listed $142,000 BCAR
• 2016-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $98,100 Public Records
• 2016-06-02 Sold (MLS) $98,000 BCAR
• 2016-04-08 Listed $99,900 BCAR
• 2010-10-07 Sold (MLS) $63,000 BCAR
• 2009-11-30 Listed $69,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.